Good telly

I have been enjoying the BBC 2 series on the Rise of the Continents.  I can't pretend to understand fully the geology of it all, but the guy doing the presentation, Professor Iain Stewart, so obviously enjoyed making the programmes that his enthusiasm is infectious.  Throw in the spectacular scenery and it becomes a programme well worth watching.

It may have cost a bob or two to send the good professor to the various corners of the world but, compared to the vast sums the BBC wastes elsewhere, this seemed like value for money.

Catch it while you still can - or wait for the repeats.

For the birds

One of the many pleasures of living in the south of Spain is watching the birdies.  Moments ago, I opened my window and spent a happy five minutes watching the swifts circling and swooping around the swimming pool.

And it is not just the swifts.  As evening falls, I hear the owls tu-whitting in the trees.  While on my way to the bar for my lunchtime beverage, I am invariably greeted by a pair of cheeky sparrows - which never fails to lift the heart.  (Whatever happened to the Edinburgh sparrows?)  And even the ubiquitous pigeons seem sleeker and more attractive than their Scottish counterparts.

And once in a while, way up in the skies, I spot a majestic predator.  One of these days, I will dig out a reference book to identify them ...

 

Quote of the day

The media are growing ever fonder of Laura Robson, the next great hope of British tennis:

On court, though, she is still a loping, rather teenager-ish specimen, some way short of the kind of gymnastically bouncy natural mover who can gambol and twist and turn without a thought. Robson has worked hard at this but in the flesh there is still a rather jarring contrast between the basic speed of her upper and lower body movements. The legs still seek the ground a little awkwardly, like somebody feeling for a light switch in the dark, but above this her hands are prodigiously fast. At times it can look a bit like a spliced piece of film, the bottom half revolving on 33rpm, the top on 45.

The less said about that last simile the better ...

The Slasher strikes

Last week, someone criticised my antipathy to Jeffrey George Osborne,  This extract from The Guardian offers an explanation:

He proposed changes to social security motivated less by the need to save money than by the urge to show how tough this government could be. From now on, jobseekers will have to sign on every week. Those who can't speak English will have to learn or lose their benefits. Most striking of all, the newly laid off will not be able to claim benefit straight away but have to wait seven days. That may not sound like much, but for those who have just lost a job that paid little, it could be impossible.

No wonder the BBC's Robert Peston called it a Wonga budget: there will be plenty who will survive that first week by taking out a loan at usurious rates.

Such punitive action will have next to no impact on the deficit. It's all about the politics. Osborne has drawn a line and invited Labour to stand on the other side of it. 

It may be clever but it is also mean-spirited.  It comes from a politician without the faintest notion of what it is like to become unemployed and without the faintest inclination to find out.

Lions roar

What larks!

There's got to be a great movie.  After hanging out the washing of the NSA and GCHQ, he confounds the Americans by sneaking out of Hong Kong, (perhaps) making his way to Moscow.  Then, he bamboozles a planeload of journalists into getting a plane to Havana, a plane without any booze and without himself.  The guy is a genius.  Clearly way beyond the capacity of the CIA.


 

Starstruck

When the martians come for us, the MoD will regret it:

The Ministry of Defence closed its UFO desk in 2009 because it served “no defence purpose” and was taking staff away from “more valuable defence-related activities”.

Besides, Trident serves no defence purpose, but they seem intent on hanging on to that ...

Am I bovvered?

City AM reports:

STOCKS and many other financial assets plunged yesterday as investors reacted to the US Federal Reserve’s threat to cut back on its stimulus programme, while worries over China added to market jitters.

The FTSE endured its sharpest daily drop since September 2011 as it lost nearly three per cent, eliminating another chunk of this year’s gains and returning to a level – 6,159.51 – last seen in January

History shows that stocks and shares go up and down and vice versa.  Today we are in a down phase; tomorrow, who knows?

What else would I have done with my investments?  At least, share dividends offer four or five times greater returns than bank account interest.

Besides, if you enjoy the capital gains in the good times, there is no point in squealing when the market turns down.  This is a form of gambling; nobody beats the casino all the time.

 

Oh dear

From The Guardian (here):

It wasn't the being called Jeffrey three times by Barack Obama during a meeting of the G8 that would have hurt George Osborne the most, though that would have been mortifying enough. It was the apology. Or rather, the lack of it. Was the president of the US in any way bothered about forgetting the name of the chancellor, a man who is supposed to be, superficially at least, one of the G8's key weapons in fixing the global economy? Far from it. What he said was: "I'm sorry, man. I must have confused you with my favourite R&B singer."

To be fair, it could have been worse. Obama could have called him Ozzy. As, indeed, some of us already do. He could also have called him Gideon, which would have had the virtue of being the name Osborne was given at birth. But Jeffrey was more than bad enough – because of what it implied, more than for what it said. What it implied was that Osborne is a total nonentity on the political stage to Obama; a man whose presence is as forgettable as his name, even when the world's press is gathered for a G8 summit.

It's a mystery

Did Mr Cameron forget to wear his jacket?  Or had he spilled a cup of coffee over it?  Or is that it slung casually over his chair?

Whatever, it is surely poor form for the host to so distinguish himself from his guests.

 

It's all a filthy plot ...

You might have thought that there was a problem with tax avoidance.  But, according to The Telegraph, it is nothing more than a ruse to attack the Tories.  Mr Brogan displays his paranoia:

George Osborne was on familiarly confident form on Today dealing with the lefty nonsense about tax avoidance. His line about Britain 'putting its house in order' by leaning on its dependencies and publishing a register of beneficial ownership was his way of getting ahead of the coalition of anti-City types that Labour has craftily encouraged  as a useful third-party front against the Tories. From UK Uncut to various charities sailing a viking long-boat at the G8 summit with 'stop tax avoidance' on its sail, the pro-business case is under siege from an intelligently engineered populist campaign that hides a straightforward political aim – to cripple the Tories – behind what at first glance looks like an eminently reasonable argument about 'fair tax'.

Amazon, Google, Starbucks and the rest of the endless list?  Tax havens?  It's all made up to attack the Tories.  Nothing to see here.  Just haud yer wheesht and move along there.

Wishing and hoping

We can all have dreams.  The FT reports:

George Osborne is to give his strongest signal yet that he wants to move Lloyds Banking Group back into private ownership by the 2015 general election, albeit not at a price that would leave taxpayers out of pocket.

I want a date with Scarlett Johanssen, albeit not if she insists that I wear a tie and take her somewhere expensive.

Neither possibilty seems remotely achievable.


 

Historical economics

Larry Elliott in The Guardian has clearly been reading the novels of Hilary Mantel.  In a rather stretched analogy, he confuses the replacement of the Governor of the Bank of England with the politics of the Tudor era:

In recent months, King has become something of a Cardinal Wolsey figure: the elder statesman upon whom the young prince relied but who has fallen out of favour after years of devotion to the state. Wolsey failed to get Henry VIII his divorce from Catherine of Aragon; King has failed to get Osborne his economic recovery.

Carney is the Thomas Cromwell to King's Wolsey, and like Cromwell will be a force to be reckoned with. The Bank has seen its powers greatly enhanced as a result of the financial crisis, and is now responsible for financial stability as well as monetary policy. One of the new governor's first tasks will be to decide, after discussions with his colleagues on the monetary policy committee, whether the Bank wishes to give forward guidance about the likely path of interest rates.

I regret to say that I do not readily identify Slasher Osborne with the dashing and cultured young Henry VIII,  What I really want to know, however, is who gets to play the role of Ann Boleyn ...

Dropping the pilot

Does George Osborne know what he is doing?  The Independent reports:

The multibillion privatisation of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) will be announced by George Osborne next week, following the forced departure of the bank's chief executive Stephen Hester yesterday evening.

Mr Hester will leave the bank later this year, clearing the way for his successor to oversee a "British Gas style" public sell-off.

The Chancellor is expected to announce further details of the privatisation in a speech next week. Treasury sources suggested he would not announce a timetable for the sale but it is likely to take place before the next general election and will aimed at the general public.

Aye, well.  At last night's close, RBS shares were listed at a price of 325.6 pence, a long way short of the 500 pence needed to ensure that the government's sell-off does not incur a heavy loss.  And sacking the chief executive is unlikely to improve the share price.

  
Update:  Within half an hour of the market opening, the price of RBS shares has dropped below 300 pence.


  

From Westminster with love

Simon Hoggart explains how wee Willie Hague keeps our spies from misbehaving,  Of course, this may not be an entirely accurate representation.

There was a faint moan from the bed. Bond tensed in the darkness and reached inside his jacket. He pulled out a copy of the Intelligence Services Act (1994).

"'Jemms, please come to bed!' It was Ayala Frappe, until the previous day personal secretary to the evil billionaire Jabez Stumblebum, whose plans to take over the world had almost reached fruition. She knew more about Stumblebum's movements than he did himself. A word from her could save the planet.

"'Chust a moment, schweetheart,' said Bond, still played by Sean Connery. 'Before we make schweet mushic, I need to refer to my line managers, who will pass the matter to the foreign secretary, home secretary, or other secretary of state for authorisation, though their decision could be overruled by an independent review, plus the interception commissioner, as well as coming under scrutiny from the Commons intelligence committee. It could take a few weeks.'

"Ayala gazed at him, furiously. But at that moment the phone rang. 'Hey, James, old buddy!' cried a familiar voice. It was the FBI's Felix Leiter. 'Lissen, I got news! Stumblebum's yacht just moored in the marina. He's there for the taking, my friend, like a big fat old raccoon up a pine tree!'

"'Lishen, Felix, am I right in thinking that Shtumblebum is a British chitizen?'

"'I guess so!'

"'Well, then it would be entirely wrong for me to receive intelligence from you, a US national, that was not obtained within the strict parameters of UK statutes …'

"'Aw, Jesus wept, James!'"

   

Headline of the day

From Bloomberg (here):

On the IMF’s Big Fat Greek Woulda-Shoulda-Coulda

A fine distinction

Lynton Crosby, aka the wizard of Oz, is coming under pressure over his twin roles as a commercial lobbyist and as an adviser to the Prime Minister.  The Observer explains the background but I urge you to admire the sophistry inherent in the Conservative Party's defence of the position:

A Conservative party representative said: "The position is very clear. Lynton Crosby gives political advice to the prime minister and the Conservative party. He does not lobby the government, or advise on government policy.

Yeah, yeah, as clear as mud.

Gummy wonder

I'm confused.  Bearing in mind that rugby players habitually wear gum-shields, I wonder how they manage to bite each other (assuming of course that the allegation were proved).

Do they take the time at the bottom of a ruck to remove the gum-shield before committing the dastardly deed?  Seems unlikely.  Or perhaps they just gnaw gummily on whatever portion of their opponent's anatomy is nearest to hand (or mouth, as it were), in which case the prospect of serious damage seems minimal.

A minor mystery ...

Quote of the day

From Albert Edwards of Société Générale (here):

"Young people today haven't got a chance of buying a house at a reasonable price, even with rock bottom interest rates. The Nationwide Building Society data shows that the average first-time buyer in London is paying over 50% of their take home pay in mortgage repayments – and that is when interest rates are close to zero."

"Why are houses too expensive in the UK? Too much debt. So what is George Osborne's solution for first-time buyers unable to afford housing? Why, arrange for a government-guaranteed scheme to burden our young people with even more debt! Why don't we call this policy by the name it really is, namely the indentured servitude of our young people.

"I believe it truly is a moronic policy that stands head and shoulders above most of the stupid economic policies I have seen implemented during my 30 years in this business."

Another Tory MP bites the dust

So it goes.  The Guardian reports:

The Conservative party was left reeling by sleaze allegations after an MP resigned from the parliamentary party for allegedly failing to declare thousands of pounds paid by a fake lobbying firm in a damaging journalistic sting.

Patrick Mercer, MP for Newark, stepped down from the party's whip after accepting £4,000 from undercover reporters posing as lobbyists. He failed to declare £2,000 of the money within parliamentary rules, it is understood.

What amazes is how little moolah it takes.  The Independent has more:

“I do not charge a great deal of money for these things,” he was reported as saying during a meeting. “I would normally come out at £500 per half day. So £1,000 a day.”

It's not exactly a significant mess of pottage.  But for such meagre returns, he was prepared to jeopardise his political career.  Inexplicable.

Only a game

A modern dilemma

So little time, so much telly to watch.  Simon Hoggart explains the problem:

Do other readers suffer from TV guilt? I have seen only three episodes of The Wire. Admit this to friends, and they look as if you had given up driving lessons after a fortnight. Pathetic and useless.

We have seven episodes of Borgen II recorded but not viewed. People say things like: "You're not watching Game of Thrones? Ohmigod! Well at least there'll be the box set."

We didn't see Treme. Nor a single episode of Spiral. Or Dexter. We stopped watching Mad Men about two years ago. I wouldn't know how to access Netflix. We are up with The Fall (brilliant – makes Belfast appear to be full of delightful people and a lot of homicidal maniacs, so no change there) and we did manage all of Broadchurch. But we lost The Politician's Husband, and still have a Foyle's War to watch.

Life was so much simpler in pre-video days when everyone refused invitations because the Forsyte Saga was on. Now we all just have a long list of unwatched shows, all of which, it seems, our friends are raving about. I feel as outdated as if I wore a Fair Isle sweater, ate Pot Noodle and had a two-bar electric fire in the sitting room.

I am reaching the stage where I find it difficult to cope with serials.  There are too many of them and, by the time the following week comes around, the impetus has been lost.  More convenient to wait for the box-set and then have a splurge on successive evenings, so that the narrative remains fresh (and comprehensible).

And, anyway, what's wrong with Fair Isle sweaters and pot noodle?


 

Score draw?

Not terribly convincing.  City AM reports:

AN INDEPENDENT Scotland would find it difficult to guarantee savers deposits in banks, the Treasury has claimed in a new report out today, leaving bank and building society customers vulnerable.

Currently depositors are guaranteed up to £85,000, with the government bailing out savers in a failed bank and the rest of the industry paying that debt back over the following years – as in the case of failed Icelandic banks and Bradford and Bingley.

But the government today argues that such a guarantee would be difficult to put in place in Scotland.

As the sector is dominated by RBS and the Bank of Scotland, any failure would place a huge burden on the remaining bank, which the Treasury argues would be unable to cope.

First, if either of Scotland's two banks fell over, the overwhelming majority of depositors would be in the rest of the UK, so that it would fall to the UK Treasury (and ultimately the English banks) to meet the bulk of the guarantee.  Second, if the two Scottish banks are taken out of the equation, the situation in the rest of the UK would be dominated by two English banks (Barclays and HSBC).  If either of them fell over, the English would be in exactly the same position as the Treasury suggests the Scots would be.

Forward to the past

So Gideon thinks that things are getting better:

George Osborne has warned that changing course on the economy would take Britain “back to square one” as he insisted that his strategy is working.

Did we ever leave square one?  The government's debt is continuing to increase, unemployment is continuing to increase and gdp remains well below the level which he inherited.

 

Omnishambles (again)

This amendment to the gracious speech - The Guardian explains the ins and outs:

1. David Cameron says he is relaxed about Tory MPs voting for an amendment criticising the Queen's speech - even though he has been taking steps to try to stop them voting for it.

2. Conservative ministers will not be voting for the amendment - even though, in calling for an EU referendum bill, it is simply asserting Conservative party policy.

3. Conservative ministers and Conservative backbenchers will be voting differently (some in favour of the amendment, some abstaining) - even though Cameron insists they want the same thing.

4. Actually voting against the amendment would probably be the most rebellious thing a Tory MP could do - even though normally government MPs are whipped to oppose amendments criticising the Queen's speech.

5. Labour MPs will be voting against the amendment - even though this means they are effectively voting to spare the government's Queen's speech from criticism.

6. Lib Dem MPs will be voting against the amendment - even though Nick Clegg told MPs at PMQs today that a future referendum on Europe was inevitable.

And the band played "Believe it if you like"

Big Dave is taking a tough line.  The Independent reports:

David Cameron has ruled out any  further concessions to his hardline Eurosceptic MPs as they prepared to defy him by staging a Commons revolt today.

The Prime Minister tried to end the damaging impression that he is being pushed around by rebel Conservative backbenchers yesterday, as his party rushed out a Draft European Union (Referendum) Bill.

Nobody believes him, of course, least of all his rebellious backbenchers.  The man has all the spine of a jellyfish, as has been amply demonstrated by the list of u-turns he has performed since taking office.  And stamping his feet in a fit of childish temper is unlikely to convince anyone ...

Quote of the day

From a Telegraph blogger (here), anent Cameron's euro-tribulations (should that be euro-contortions?):

I literally have no idea what David Cameron thinks he’s doing. And I’m pretty sure David Cameron has no idea either. 

   

Metaphysicality

Management jargon reaches football.  Here is a gnomic utterance from Manchester City:

"Despite everyone's best efforts, the club has failed to achieve any of its stated targets this year, with the exception of qualification for next season's Uefa Champions League. This, combined with an identified need to develop a holistic approach to all aspects of football at the club, has meant that the decision has been taken to find a new manager for the 2013-14 season and beyond."

Ah yes, the lack of a holistic approach.  What does that mean, exactly?  The Guardian tries to explain:

The reference to a "holistic approach" suggests a sea change in philosophy from top to bottom of the club, driven by the chief executive, Ferran Soriano, and Txiki Begiristain, the director of football. This may include playing 4-3-3 throughout the academy and in the first team. Following the removal of Mancini, who could be a divisive figure, there may also be a hope that the club will be more cohesive.

How banal.  A holistic approach means nothing more than adopting a consistent 4-3-3 formation, together with an absence of arguments.  The Guardian's football commentators need to raise their game;  what does Nietzsche have to say about the over-lapping wingback? 

  

Closing stable doors

Hmm, yet another banking crisis.  Perhaps the ratings agency has over-reacted?

The Co-operative Bank is trying to reassure its customers that it would not need a multimillion-pound taxpayer bailout after its debt was downgraded to junk status and its chief executive suddenly quit.

The move by the ratings agency Moody's to take the axe to the Manchester-based bank's credit rating followed weeks of speculation about its financial position after it posted £600m losses in March and then pulled out of a deal to buy 632 branches from Lloyds Banking Group.

Moody's warned that the bank might need "external support" – perhaps from its parent group which owns grocers, pharmacies and funeral homes – if it could not bolster its financial position. The agency cited concerns about the Co-operative incurring more losses from loans to property companies and the slow integration of the Britannia Building Society, which the Co-operative took over three years ago.

The City was stunned by the scale of the downgrade – six notches – which will raise the price at which the bank borrows on the financial markets and illustrates the speed at which the agency believes the bank's finances have deteriorated.

I am nevertheless bound to wonder why the Bank of England and its clutch of regulatory agencies failed to head off this situation at the pass.  Or were they sleeping again?

Worth a read

Marina gets it:

The smaller British politics gets, the more it feels that you might as well judge a politician by that key question: could you honestly bear to have a pint with them? I could bear to have a pint with Nigel Farage. Not anyone else in his party, you understand. But a pint and a fag with Farage, and probably a packet of salt and vinegar crisps, which I'd tear down the seam and spread out on the table while Nigel told some story against himself.

I think after five or six pints Nigel might start airing a few views I couldn't warm to, so I wouldn't stick around. But I could stand one pint with him, quite possibly even a pint and a half. With Messrs Nicholas Clegg, Edward Miliband and David Cameron, however, I would cross continents to avoid taking even a fluid ounce. The other leaders – and I do think we must refer to them in the same breath as Farage, just because it annoys them so hilariously much – look about as convivial as haemorrhoids. They have spent the week of the local elections looking like pompous arses, while the affable semi-berk Farage has led Ukip to the biggest surge by a fourth party in England since the second world war.

Shame that the usual crew of commentators in the Westminster bubble are lost up their own fundaments.

A flash in the pan ...

... or a game-changer?  So UKIP appears to have done rather a lot better than expected in the English local elections, with 42 gains after 7 of the 34 councils have declared, while taking a 26% share of the vote.  It is now entirely possible that they will end up with over 200 seats gained.  We can now revise upwards UKIP's prospects at next year's European elections where, in England at least, they may end up as the largest party, in terms of both seats and votes.

So where would that leave Scotland as it approaches the independence referendum in the autumn of next year?  If England under UKIP or, more likely, under a UKIP-influenced Tory Party bent on tacking to the right, is revealing its poujadiste, xenophobic, little Englander, anti-European tendencies, would Scotland want to remain in a United Kingdom?

Hubris oder Nemesis

Compare and contrast

Yesterday:

Iain Duncan Smith encouraged better-off elderly people to pay back taxpayer-funded financial support that they do not need, such as the winter fuel allowance and free bus passes and television licences.

He urged those who can afford it to pay back the benefit, saying it was an "anomaly" that all pensioners receive universal benefits, no matter how wealthy they are.

In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph Duncan Smith said there is "no indication of change" to the current system, despite calls for an amendment to the payment system.

He told the newspaper: "It is up to them if they don't want it to hand it back. I would encourage everybody who reads the Telegraph and doesn't need it to hand it back."

Today:

Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary, insisted he was neither encouraging nor discouraging wealthy pensioners to hand back their universal benefits such as the free bus pass, free TV licence or the winter fuel allowance.

He had been reported in the Sunday Telegraph as supporting the charitable voluntary move as a way of reducing the deficit, but on Monday he said: "I am not encouraging people to hand it back or keep it."

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "This is a bit of a silly story, which people have tried to elaborate, when I didn't say very much at all.

"All I said in answer to a question, [is that] there's always been the position that if somebody wants to hand the money back if they don't use it that's up to them."But I'm not making that a policy position; it's just there, it's always been available for them to do – that's it."

Oh what a tangled web we weave ...

Offending the monstrous regiment

Does the coalition government have a death wish?  The Observer notes:

Parents are joining forces with Britain's top nursery chains in a revolt against plans to reduce the number of carers required to look after babies and toddlers – amid stark warnings the safety of children would be compromised.

The two leading internet forums for mothers – Mumsnet and Netmums – unite this weekend with top private and voluntary sector nurseries to demand the reforms be abandoned.

Sir Humphrey would have suggested that a failure to consult adequately such powerful organisations as Mumsnet amounted to a very brave decision by Miniosters ...

Quote of the day

Sir Mervyn King on putting Churchill on the fiver:

"It seems entirely appropriate to put Sir Winston on what is probably our most popular note," he said.

"Our banknotes acknowledge the life and work of great Britons. Sir Winston Churchill was a truly great British leader, orator and writer. Above that, he remains a hero of the entire free world. His energy, courage, eloquence, wit and public service are an inspiration to us all."

Well, sorry to be a wet blanket but does being a great war-time leader counterbalance his actions in sending troops against striking miners, in promoting the disastous Dardanelles campaign and in returning Britain to the gold standard with all its dreadful consequences?

Tragedy in the making

Cautiously and reluctantly, but inexorably, President Obama is teetering towards US military intervention in Syria.  He knows that nothing good will come of such intervention; yet, even with the examples of Iraq and Afghanistan, he appears unable to stop the maxhine.  He also knows that getting in will be considerably easier than getting out.  And he must be conscious of the difficulties of finding a form of intervention which will avoid making matters worse for the ordinary Syrian.

That is not to say that the Assad regime is remotely acceptable, even if there are other regimes in the world that are equally despicable.  Nor can I deny that the Syrian rebels deserve assistance, even if they have some dubious allies in the fight.

It may be a counsel of despair, but some issues are just intractable.  And perhaps there may come a time when the US has to recognise its limitations and stop playing the global policeman.


   

Word of the week

To demise:  verb trans; meaning - to downsize, to lay off, to sack; as in "your job is being demised so that you can spend more time on the golf course"; source - HSBC

From here

   

Did she have a headache?

Seems a bit rushed, somehow.  Where was the champagne and flowers?  Will scientists ever understand the course of true love?

Tian Tian, the UK's only female giant panda, has been artificially inseminated at Edinburgh Zoo after scientists scrutinising her behaviour decided she was exhibiting signs that were not "conducive to mating".

A team of experts monitoring Tian Tian and her prospective mate, Yang Guang, for the past week, opted to perform the procedure on Sunday as the female panda neared what is unromantically known as her "36-hour breeding window".

     

See scientists ...

From the university department of the bleedin' obvious:

Crying babies really do calm down when they are picked up and cradled according to a study that has discovered a deeper scientific basis to a phenomenon that every new mother soon realises to be true.

Scientists in Japan have found that the heart rate of crying babies slows down when they are in put in the arms of their mothers and carried about 

(Did it occur to them to ask any mother?)

   

At last

The bible tells us that there is joy in the presence of the angels of God over one sinner that repenteth.  So I suppose that we should welcome the IMF's change of heart:

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, said on Thursday that the poor performance of the British economy had left her with no alternative but to call on George Osborne to rethink his austerity strategy.Increasing the pressure on the chancellor to change course, Lagarde – who has previously given consistent and public support to the UK's deficit reduction strategy – said the fund had changed its stance as a result of weak economic figures. 

But, Lord, it has taken them a long time to see the light; and the damage done in the meantime is incalculable.

Out of the woodwork

Here they come ...  Thatcher's funeral attracts the bad, the mad and the just plain wacky.  There is the former Vice-President Dick Cheney, the Iraq war architect who inadvertently shot one of his chums during a quail hunt.  Who is that warmonger over there?  Why it's Henry Kissinger, who caused the death of satire by being awarded the Nobel peace prize.  And the lady with the big hair is rightwingnut, Michele Bachman, who allegedly believes that President Obama is a socialist with anti-American views.

What did Thatcher do to deserve these mourners?

 

Pathetic

So, they are looking for a middle way.  Well it won't work; the BBC should either play the song or not, then live with the accusations of a lack of respect or alternatively of craven toadying to the Tories.  Thia way, nobody will be happy.  The Guardian reports:

The new BBC director general, Tony Hall, appears to have caved in to pressure during the first major test of his tenure, deciding not to play the song Ding Dong! The Witch Is Dead in full on Radio 1 after a furious reaction from Tory MPs and rightwing newspapers.

In a fudge likely to satisfy Lady Thatcher's supporters but criticised by anti-censorship campaigners, the BBC will play a five-second clip of the track – which is being pushed up the charts by anti-Thatcher protesters – in a news item during the Radio 1 Chart Show on Sunday.

The BBC has taken the unprecedented step of deciding to insert a news story into the show to explain to younger viewers [?] why a track from the 1939 film The Wizard of Oz has suddenly leapt into the top 10. Radio  1 has a target audience of 16- to 24-year-olds, none of whom will recall Thatcher's premiership first hand.

To compound the error, they patronise listeners by assuming that they need to have the song explained.

 

Not in Kansas now

Well, if you must, as it has reached No 10 in what used to be known as the hit parade:

If you can't say something nice about someone, best say nothing at all

So, nothing.

     

What a star!

What is the world coming to?

Is that it, then?

I am not usually a vindictive person but these incompetents appear to be getting off lightly.  The Guardian reports:

The three executives who ran HBOS bank in the runup to its near-catastrophic collapse have been slated for their "colossal failure" of management in a scathing report which calls for them to be held to account by the City regulator.

The highly critical account of the events that led to HBOS being rescued by Lloyds in September 2008 said the responsibility for the management failings rested with the former chairman Lord Stevenson, and the former chief executives Sir James Crosby and Andy Hornby, and says the bank would have gone bust even if the global financial meltdown of that year had not happened. The bank, formed out of Bank of Scotland and Halifax in 2001, racked up £47bn of losses on bad loans.

In a report entitled An Accident Waiting to Happen, the parliamentary commission on banking standards calls on the trio to apologise for their "toxic" mistakes which caused the downfall of the bank and prompted a £20bn taxpayer bailout.

So they might be barred from future work in the finance sector?  I'm not impressed (and who would have them anyway?).  Meanwhile they enjoy their fat pensions and their ill-gotten gains.

Fitba

I watched the Real Madrid - Galatasary match last night, as it happens, on an Al-Jazeera station.  There was, however, no escaping the ubiquitous Gary Lineker who introduced the programme, with his confreres, the super-intellectual Alan Shearer (as bland as ever), the slightly creepy Ray Wilkins (with his constant references to "these young men") and Michael Owen (actually quite good).  Does the BBC not pay them enough?

Good football match, though.

I felt slightly guilty about not watching Malaga and Dortmund, but they were not exactly the glamour teams on display.

Naughty boys

Do you suppose that SSE gives a hoot about being fined £10.5 million by Ofgem for prolonged and extensive mis-selling?  This is a company with a turnover last year of over £30 billion.  A fine of £100 million might have hurt them a little; a fine of £1 billion might have made them think more carefully before misbehaving in future.  A fine of £10.5 million - that's petty cash.

It's not a MAD world?

I am not entirely clear as to why North Korea might wish to lob an inter-continental ballistic missile (assuming that it actually had the capacity) in the direction of the UK, but Mr Cameron obviously takes the matter seriously:

David Cameron has warned against abandoning Britain's Trident nuclear submarine programme, claiming it would be foolish to do so due to the threats posed by North Korea.

The prime minister said the country should not be left defenceless when the "highly unpredictable and aggressive" regime in North Korea was developing ballistic missiles that he claimed could threaten Europe.

Writing in the Daily Telegraph,, Cameron said the UK needed to maintain the ultimate deterrent as much today as during the cold war.

"The Soviet Union no longer exists. But the nuclear threat has not gone away. In terms of uncertainty and potential risk it has, if anything, increased."

Cameron said Iran was continuing to defy the will of the international community over its nuclear programme while North Korea may already be building a nuclear arsenal.

"Last year, North Korea unveiled a long-range ballistic missile which it claims can reach the whole of the United States. If this became a reality, it would also affect the whole of Europe, including the UK."

I had been under the impression that Trident was supposed to be a deterrent; they would not obliterate us if  we did not obliterate them.  Given the threats to nuke our cousins across the Atlantic, North Korea clearly does not subscribe to that theory.  In these circumstances, what is the point of Trident?  Would it not be better to invest in one or two of these anti-missile systems that the yanks have sent to Guam?  Bound to be cheaper than Trident.

Fiddling while Rome burns

Just occasionally, government ministers actually resolve problems.  (I can't for the moment think of any concrete examples but it must be true.)  Mostly, however, they simply try to avoid making them worse, in effect by kicking the can down the road.  But, once in a blue moon, they come across a problem that is so damaging and so intractable that they have no alternative but to resort to the ultimate sanction - they are forced to re-orghanise.  So it is with Mrs May and the UK Border Agency:

The troubled UK Border Agency is to be abolished and brought back within the Home Office, the home secretary, Theresa May has announced.

She told MPs that she will also split the "closed and secretive" agency into an immigration and visa service and a separate law enforcement command while bringing it back under the direct control of ministers.

May first split off the UK border force from UKBA 12 months ago in the wake of the Brodie Clark affair.

The home secretary said in an unscheduled Commons statement that UKBA was "a troubled organisation … its performance was not good enough". She identified four main problems: its size, its lack of transparency, its IT systems and its policy and legal framework.

She said that the immigration agency has been such a "troubled organisation" for so many years that it will take many more years to clear the backlogs, which now top more than 310,000 cases, and fix the system.

It reminds me of the spurious quotation attributed to Petronius:

We trained hard . . . but it seemed that every time we were beginning to form up into teams we would be reorganised. I was to learn later in life that we tend to meet any new situation by reorganising; and a wonderful method it can be for creating the illusion of progress while producing confusion, inefficiency, and demoralisation.

Will Mrs May's reorganisation make it better? Need you ask?

What did he think he was doing?

It may not exactly qualify as snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but it comes pretty close.  The Guardian reports:

The good news for the eurozone was that the markets reacted well to the bailout deal for Cyprus. The bad news was that the rally lasted barely until lunchtime. By then investors were running scared at the prospect that the terms imposed on one of the single currency's smaller members would be the template for rescue packages for bigger countries.

Credit for the change of mood goes to Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs meetings of eurozone finance ministers and who decided it would be a good idea to go public with the idea that Cyprus was not such a special case after all.

For the past week the message has gone out that there are no comparisons between a country that allowed itself to become the tax haven of choice for high-rolling Russians and other, better-managed, members of the eurozone.

Then, in a couple of interviews, Dijsselbloem said Cyprus would be used as the model for future bailouts.

The comments were an open invitation to any investor with more than €100,000 in a eurozone bank to remove it without delay, which some then did.

By the end of the day shares in Europe were tumbling, the euro was dropping against the dollar and the cost of insuring European banks against default was rising, forcing Dijsselbloem to issue a clarification of his earlier remarks. Confirming that European politicians could not organise a booze-up in a brewery, Cyprus was back to being a special case once again.

     

Sorted?

So, crisis resolved?  The Guardian reports:

European leaders reached an agreement with Cyprus early on Monday morning that closes down the island's second-biggest bank and inflicts huge losses on wealthy savers.

Russians would lose billions of euros under draconian terms that are aimed at preventing the Mediterranean tax haven becoming the first country forced out of the single currency.

"Herman Van Rompuy has brokered an agreement between the troika and Cyprus," said an EU source, referring to the president of the European council and Cyprus's trio of creditors: the European commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Well, not quite.  The deal has yet to be finalised.  It remains unclear how many billions of euros will be confiscated from the Russians.  And does the Cypriot parliament have a say?  And when will the banks open?  And under what conditions?

Furthermore, in the medium term, capital controls may stop (or, more accurately, delay) the flight of funds from Cypriot banks, but can do nothing to encourage any further investment.  Who, now, would be so foolish as to put any money in a Cypriot bank?

Should have gone to Specsavers!

Car crash

In case you hadn't noticed ...

The Telegraph blog records:

But rising numbers of people on above average earnings are paying income tax at 40pc. The starting point for higher rate tax has already fallen from £37,400 under Labour to £34,371 now. HMRC’s figures show that has increased the number of people paying 40pc or higher rates of income tax by 670,000 from 3.19m in in 2009 to 3.86m today.

As a result of Mr Osborne’s proposal to lower the starting point for 40pc tax to £31,865 with effect from April, 2014, nearly 5m people will be caught in the top rate tax net – even if their pay remains unchanged. By the time of the next election in 2015, Grant Thornton forecasts that more than 5.2m people will pay higher rate tax.

And it's not just those who suddenly find themselves in the higher tax bracket.  The reduced threshold means that everyone in the higher tax bracket will pay more tax than would otherwise have been the case.



 

Aspiration nation

So the chancellor mentioned aspiration 16 times in his speech yesterday.

When I studied phonetics some 40+ years ago, I was taught that aspiration was the puff of air that accompanied the articulation of a voiceless plosive,  Basically, it was just hot air.  Seems appropriate somehow.

In those days, a pint of beer could be bought for between 2/- and a half a crown.  A penny off your pint would have meant something.  Nowadays, with the price of beer exceeding £3 a pint, a penny off is neither here or there.  It's just a gimmick.


 

Cyprus - what happens next?

Good question.  The answer is that nobody knows.

It remains possible that, as the Cypriot parliament has rejected the deal, the troika withdraws its (conditional) offer of a bail-out.  Cyprus renegues on its debts and its banks go bust.  The EU throws it out of the euro and Cyprus starts again with a new currency and capital controls.

But this will not suit anyone.  The obvious next step is for the troika and the Cypriot authorities to get together and thrash out a new deal.  But it is difficult to see how the gap between the two sides can be bridged.  Nor does it seem possible that the Cypriot banks can re-open until the issues are resolved (as everyone would immediately empty their accounts).  How long can a country survive without a functioning banking system?  We may be about to find out.

Could the Russians come to the rescue?  In return for what?  And where would that leave the EU?  And what about contagion spreading to Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal?

We live in interesting times ...

The drama continues

I would respectfully suggest that the ba' is on the slates,  The Guardian reports:

It appears certain that the Cyprus parliament will reject the bailout package as it stands.

A spokesperson for the governing Democratic Rally (Disy) party of President Nicos Anastasiades revealed before the debate started that its MPs have decided to abstain, rather than support the package.

With the rest of the parliament expected to vote against it, this is a major display of defiance from Nicosia against the eurozone.

And so armageddon draws a little bit closer.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defence is getting over-excited:

Britain has just sent a aeroplane carrying one million euros to Cyprus as a"contingency measure" to help troops and their families.

The move (which sounds like the start of a Hollywood heist), is an attempt to make sure military personal [personnel?] won't run out of cash if ATM machines and bank cards stop workinh

Further plans [planes?] could be sent too. PA says the Ministry of Defence is determined to minimise the impact of the Cyprus banking crisis on "our people" and it will consider further shipments if required.

Not looking good

Imagine that you are one of the Russians who have a collective €30 billion plus on deposit in Cypriot banks.  You are about to lose 9.9% (perhaps more) of those funds in expropriations.  What are you going to do when the Cypriot banks re-open?  Are you going to sit around waiting for the same thing to happen again (as euro crises have a habit of recurring)?  Or are you going to move what remains of your money to somewhere safer, outside the EU (Switzerland perhaps, or the Caymans, or the Middle East)?  I know what I'd do.

Then imagine that you are one of the 18,000 plus British pensioners resident on the island.  You are also about to be expropriated. perhaps by a smaller amount than the Russians.  Worse, the UK Government has stopped your pension until the current banking confusion is cleared up.  And, as the banks are closed, at least until Thursday,  you cannot access any of your money anyway.  Are you ever going to trust a Cypriot bank again?

Finally, imagine that you are the boss of a Cypriot bank.  Although you were only doing what you were told, you and your bank are being treated like lepers.  The foreigners and the locals are closing their accounts like there was no tomorrow.  And for you, there may not be a tomorrow.  After all, for how long can you expect the ECB to keep you afloat with expensive loans?  Banks rely on trust and, even if it was not entirely your fault, you have forfeited that trust.

Where will it all end?


   

Quote of the day

Simon Hoggart in The Guardian (here):

Gosh, they were pleased with themselves. They'd come to a deal over press regulation, and there hasn't been so much self-congratulation over a multilateral pact since Versailles in 1914. David Cameron paid tribute to Nick Clegg andEd Miliband. Clegg had kind words for Miliband and Cameron. Miliband himself was in grateful debt to Cameron and Clegg. It was what the Americans call a "circle jerk".

Don't expect any comments from me on the deal.  The press have written yards and yards of comment, none of which actually explains what the deal involves.  And I am far from sure that Cameron, Clegg and Miliband understand precisely what they have signed up to.


 

Am I a media whore?

Not all bloggers are what they seem - allegedly.  The Independent has the skinny:

So in a media world where the lines between editorial and advertising have never been harder to detect, how many more bloggers out there are working for a hidden paymaster?

It has recently been brought to my attention how easy it is for public relations firms to round up whole battalions of lifestyle bloggers with no apparent experience in professional journalism and feed them video clips, which appear like harmless fun, but have a deeper political significance. The amateur bloggers are encouraged to share the material with other like-minded blogs and offered free "press trips", unaware that their presence may have a political purpose.

Fashion blogs are offered giveaways for readers in return for using agreed copy. Numerous websites encourage bloggers to make money by composing (presumably favourable) product reviews.

I can only assure you that this blogger has never been offered any inducements; the opinions expressed here are unaffected by monetary or other external considerations.  Buy, hey, if anyone out there is offering ...

Daylight robbery?

Oh to be in Cyprus now that spring is here.  The Observer reports:

Cypriots reacted with shock that turned to panic on Saturday after a 10% one-off levy on savings was forced on them as part of an extraordinary 10bn euro (£8.7bn) bailout agreed in Brussels.

People rushed to banks and queued at cash machines that refused to release cash as resentment quickly set in. The savers, half of whom are thought to be non-resident Russians, will raise almost €6bn thanks to a deal reached by European partners and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is the first time a bailout has included such a measure and Cyprus is the fifth country after Greece, the Republic of Ireland, Portugal and Spain to turn to the eurozone for financial help during the region's debt crisis. The move in the eurozone's third smallest economy could have repercussions for financially overstretched bigger economies such as Spain and Italy. 

People with less than 100,000 euros in their accounts will have to pay a one-time tax of 6.75%, Eurozone officials said, while those with greater sums will lose 9.9%.

You think it wouldn't happen in Spain, or in Italy, or in the UK?  Don't count on it ...


 

Military mysteries

So, some 16,000 soldiers are to return from Germany over the next six years.  I wonder what they have been doing in Germany for the past 20 years.

I can understand why British troops were located in Germany in the years following 1945 and during the Cold War.  But it is now many years since the USSR posed an invasion threat to Western Europe.  Did someone in the Ministry of Defence just forget about all those troops stationed in Germany?  What possible purpose could they have been serving?

Meanwhile, through all those years, MoD bigwigs were complaining of a lack of resources.  Funny old world, isn't it?

Quote of the day

From the Home Affairs Select Committee (here):

 "We do not believe that officers should enter into intimate, physical sexual relationships while using their false identities undercover without clear, prior authorisation, which should only be given in the most exceptional circumstances.

"In particular, it is unacceptable that a child should be brought into the world as a result of such a relationship and this must never be allowed to happen again."

I can see their point but I'm not sure how it can work in practice:

"Look boss, I have infiltrated this group of environmental eco-terrorists and I have met this nice lady.  She says she will tell me when they next propose to bomb a certain nuclear facility but will only do so if I agree to sleep with her.  May I have your permission, please.  I promise to use a condom."

It's not going to happen, is it?


   

It's a funny old world

I suppose that it would be naive of me to wonder why a bank which makes an annual loss of more than £5 billion should pay out any bonuses at all, let alone £607 million.  The fact that the bank is 83% owned by the taxpayer merely compounds my irritation.  What special magic is this that insists that top bankers (and their ilk) require massive bonuses in order to do a decent job?

Meanwhile our Prime Minister seeks to resist EU proposals to limit bankers' bonuses to 100% of their salaries, apparently on the grounds that these might encourage foreign banks located in London to decamp to Zurich, Singapore or New York.  My own (naive) opinion would be to let them go; we have more than enough parasites feeding on the system.  It is not as though they do anything useful, after all.