The Camerons in Lanzarote

Why is she wearing a blanket over her shoulder?

 

Fantasy currency trading

Improbable?  Would you trust opinion polls to this extent?  The Times reports:

Hedge funds are preparing to use exit polls to make hugely profitable trades before the official result of the European Union referendum is declared.

Traders want to exploit a loophole in electoral law that forbids the publication of surveys while voting takes place, according to City sources.

Commissioning a private exit poll that accurately forecast how Britain had voted would enable traders to make a killing on the currency markets. A vote for Brexit is widely expected to trigger a decline in sterling against the dollar, but a surge is the likely outcome if voters choose to remain.

Aye, well.  The proposed trades will only be profitable (i) if the polls deliver the correct answer and (ii) the correct answer is not widely predictable (in which case any currency movements will already have been anticipated).  This is a manufactured story.

 
   

Get a life!

Has this Guardian columnist got nothing better to do than watch children's television?  I mean, does anyone care about the precise gradations in the accents of Peppa Pig's family?

This is probably a result of watching too much Downton Abbey over the years, but every day, as I sit through back-to-back episodes of Peppa Pig with my kids, I increasingly find myself wondering: did Mummy Pig marry down?

I ask because both she and her parents have notably posher accents than Daddy Pig. He is in the middle; Mummy Pig is slightly posher than him; and Grandpa and Granny Pig – particularly Granny, who is a kind of porcine Felicity Kendal – are super-posh. Peppa, meanwhile, mimics her mother’s more than her father’s voice. I see her years from now, sporting a blazer and straw boater, bellowing one of her signature boasts into the face of a school chum.

And they get paid for this?

 
   

In defence of the wrinklies

Far from sure that this is entirely justified but it is a useful counterblast to the apparently universal belief that pensioners are favoured over younger generations:

The argument is made by respectable think-tanks, such as the Resolution Foundation and the estimable Institute for Fiscal Studies, that pensioners have never had it so good. Their figures show that the incomes of retired people have risen faster in recent years than those of younger people in work. But this does not mean that retired people are, even on average, well-off. The statisticians are talking percentage rises from a disgracefully low base. 

The income of most pensioners, in real money, is still considerably lower than that of most working people. Nor are their outgoings automatically lower. Indeed,  an OECD report published late last year found that the UK state pension was “one of the worst in the world”, with only Mexico and Chile coming lower among industrialised countries. 

Pensioners have also had a raw deal from the financial crisis, though a different raw deal from that suffered by those in work. While wages have, until very recently, stagnated or fallen, pensions have slowly risen. But the savings that today’s pensioners were encouraged to make while they were working to supplement their still-paltry pension now produce almost no income at all. 

The low interest rates that allow working people to take out higher mortgages (and fuel higher house prices) penalise pensioners who saved – whether in bank accounts, Isas or private pensions. If interest rates go into negative territory, their plight will be even worse. Contrast this with the Lifetime Isas announced by the Chancellor in his Budget. These will  pay an effective interest rate of more than 20 per cent (£1,000 for every £4,000  saved for a house or a pension). This is a  rate most pensioners – told to “shop around” for a rate higher than 0.5 per cent  – can only dream of. 

Nevertheless, it surely cannot be denied that some pensioners (not excluding me) are doing rather better than alright.  Case for means-testing some of the pensioner benefits?

Caution or pusillanimity?

All that effort to acquire powers over tax.  And, having acquired such powers, the SNP disdains their use.  The BBC website notes:

So the offer on tax is to thwart the chancellor's proposed tax cut for higher earners which is achieved by raising the threshold for the 40p rate from £42,000 to £45,000.

Instead of that, the threshold in Scotland will only rise by CPI inflation - as I forecast a wee while back. (In fact, the entire package will have come as no surprise to regular readers of this site.)

Ms Sturgeon and her deputy John Swinney said their plan meant nobody in Scotland would pay more than they presently pay. Some would pay less. But some would pay more than folk in the rest of the UK.

That, they said, would generate productive revenue for public services in Scotland - which they multi-counted to reach a figure of £1bn over the lifetime of the next parliament.

Looking ahead, the first minister also envisaged an enhanced personal allowance of £12,750 by 2021-22 - with the prospect of a zero rate band to achieve that, if necessary.

Throw in the modest changes to council tax, and it is a policy of steady as she goes.

 

Quote of the day

From The Observer (here):

... how should we judge Duncan Smith’s six years as secretary of state? Having an original, consistent vision for the transformation of the benefit system was not a fault, even if not all of us thought it was practical or sensible. But when confronted with evidence or data that challenged his world view, he ignored it or, worse still, twisted and misrepresented the statistics. When his advisers told him to slow down, he refused to listen. When disabled people or charities pointed out the human cost, in suicides or food banks, not only did he not change course, he and his advisers smeared them with off-the-record briefings. Ultimately, it was this refusal to engage with reality that was not only his downfall, but ensures that he leaves little in the way of a positive legacy.

If the Tory Party is a house of many mansions, then a plague on them all.

 

Music of the week

Allez les bleus!

Fantasy politics

The last time I sought an appointment with my Edinburgh GP, I was offered a date three weeks later.  But, never mind, according to the BBC, Kezia is going to fix it:

Scottish Labour has said everyone in Scotland will be guaranteed a GP appointment within 48 hours if the party wins the Holyrood election.

Party leader Kezia Dugdale will make the pledge in a speech to its one-day conference in Glasgow.

Question:  How do you reduce a waiting list from three weeks to 48 hours?
Answer:  You can't and won't.

(Unless you accept that it will take years and years, given the throughput from medical schools.  In which case, it would be kinder to say so.)

         

Fantasy football

Well, at least, it's an original thought.  The Independent reports:

Arsène Wenger, the Arsenal manager, has claimed that Barcelona were “more beatable than ever before” in a response to suggestions that Europe’s elite have left his side behind.

The north Londoners suffered a 5-1 aggregate loss to the Spanish side after a 3-1 second leg defeat in the Nou Camp on Wednesday. Yet Wenger, who saw his side knocked out of the FA Cup and Champions League in the space of four days this week, was full of frustration at how Arsenal did not progress in the latter competition despite being totally outplayed in both legs.

“The regret I have about the two games against Barcelona may be they were more beatable than ever before,” he said when asked if Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are now uncatchable. 

Aye, and pigs might fly ...

   

From the mouths of babes and sucklings

Impudence?

http://bbc.in/1Mel6ps
   

Quote of the day

From The Guardian (here):

You could normally rely on the Labour leader to fail to rise to the big occasion and replying to a budget that even those who wrote it haven’t fully understood was one of the toughest gigs in Westminster. George settled in for the car crash. That never came. Dressed in a sharp new suit, Corbyn delivered one of his sharpest performances yet in the Commons.

“This budget is the culmination of six years of failure,” he began, his voice angry with intent. Even a few of his many enemies on the Labour benches began to look up and pay attention. Corbyn pressed on. His speech didn’t always bear much relation to anything George had actually said – he hadn’t been listening when the chancellor was talking about small business – and it did sometimes feel as if he was reading it for the first time, but the unfamiliar can sometimes create a feeling of immediacy.

Then something unprecedented happened. Corbyn made a gag. Or read one out that someone else had written.“This government has built 12 homes in Ebbsfleet for every government press release,” he said. “We need more press releases.” People laughed. Not at him, but with him. George’s day had unexpectedly just gone from bad to worse.

       

Map of the day

It's the same the whole world over ...

And so the rich get richer.  The Independent reports:

For those with large salaries, the threshold for the higher rate of income tax will be raised from £42,386 to £45,000. For those with valuable assets, capital gains tax will be cut from 28 per cent to 20 per cent. For those wealthy enough to have savings, the ISA limit will be increased from £15,000 to £20,000. For those wealthy enough to run businesses, corporation tax will fall from 20 per cent to 17 per cent.

Research suggests that in raising the tax-free personal allowance, 85 per cent of the benefits of these cuts will go to the wealthiest half of Britain. A think tank has found that because Britain’s 4.6 million lowest paid workers earn less than £10,600 already, they “will gain nothing at all.” Rather, it is the middle classes who stand to gain the most, under a scheme masquerading as help for the poor.

Similarly, tax-free ISAs will be increased from £15,000 to £20,000 which means little to anyone but those already wealthy enough to have considerable savings. You simply cannot dodge interest on savings which you do not have.

Ain't it all a bloody shame ...

   

The unanswerable question

Duplicity?

Apparently, the Prime Minister has been love-bombing English regional newspapers.  The Guardian reports:

The Herald, Plymouth’s newspaper, published a piece from Cameron which began with the words: “I love Cornwall and Isles of Scilly.” The Newcastle Chronicle carried a piece that started: “I love Northumberland.” And the same in the Lincolnshire Echo: “I love Lincolnshire.”

For the south-west audience, the PM wrote of Cornwall: “From their stunning beaches and coastal walks to their creative arts projects, this county is one of the many jewels in Great Britain’s crown.”

For the north-east: “From Hadrian’s Wall to Europe’s biggest sky park, this county is one of the many jewels in Great Britain’s crown.”

For Lincolnshire, the PM said: “From the quaint market towns to the rolling countryside, this county is one of the many jewels in Great Britain’s crown.”

Promiscuous?  And how ...

Lèse-majesté?

Did Michael Gove leak the Queen's aversion to the EU?  To the Murdoch press?  The Independent thinks so:

This scrape may be his last as a Cabinet minister for a while. Landing himself in hot water is one thing, and a usually survivable thing at that. Dunking the Queen in it, and so compromising the Crown’s priceless neutrality, is another. Even in an undeferential age, he may have to go.

If so, knowing how close he is both to Boris and George Osborne, he would probably return, assuming one or other succeeds Cameron – and any such comeback would be loudly supported by one newspaper group. But if Michael Gove does quit, perhaps he could use some of the new free time to ponder Norman’s First Iron Law of Media Life, and act upon it. If you go to bed with Rupert Murdoch, that law definitively states, you will inevitably one day awake with a discharge and a nasty rash.

   

Appeal from Edinburgh foodbank

It won't cost you anything to sign a petition:

I am writing as a friend of our foodbank to ask for your support to encourage Lothian Buses to reverse its decision to stop using single journey paper tickets.
These paper tickets are used at our seven foodbank centres to give to clients, who we find through conversation, have travelled a long distance to collect an emergency food pack.
The alternative is for us to use Lothian's 'm-tickets' via mobile phones or 'smart cards' that have to be pre-loaded and topped up with a minimum of 10 journeys.  Neither of these will allow us to supply single tickets leaving those already in crisis to carry food packs weighing between 11 and 26 kilograms substantial distances.
We would ask you to consider signing the following on-line petitions to keep this valuable resource used by many of Edinburgh Charities:
38 Degrees Petition to Lothian Buses - CLICK HERE
City of Edinburgh Council Petition - CLICK HERE 
Please feeel free to pass this on to friends and relatives to gain their support too.
Many thanks, 
Ewan WalkerOperations ManagerEdinburgh Food Project

But you can make a donation to the foodbank here.

   

Music of the week

It's not easy being Queen

Extract from Her Maj's diary (here):

Wednesday

One’s household is in uproar. According to the Sun, one once declared one’s fervent preference for Britain leaving the Europe Union in the midst of a fierce argument with Nick Clegg.

“Who?” one says.

“He was the deputy prime minister,” says one’s private secretary, who is completely apoplectic about all this.

Nope. Complete blank. One has nothing.

“Mimsy feller,” explains Philly. “Bog-brush hair. Whines a lot. Wants us to be more like Belgium. Handshake like a fish.”

One tells Philly to shush. Imagine the fuss if it leaked out that we thought that.

“Oh, don’t worry,” says one’s private secretary. “Everybody thinks that.”

 

Quote of the day

Even allowing for the fact that his English is not as good as he thinks it is, this is still gibberish:

When asked whether the next week would determine his future, Van Gaal not only refused to engage, but went on to claim that, in his view, his United plan is on track.

“Yes, I do think it is working,” Van Gaal said. “You have to see how we have to work with the circumstances we have to work. I do think it is working. The style is also working, but it is not giving the best results.

“When you don’t have too many players and you have to play in three competitions it is very difficult to play.

   

To them that hath ...

Look, I know it's complicated but Osborne's decision to abandon reform of pensions tax relief only benefits higher earners.  CityAM explains:

Higher earners have likely benefited from chancellor George Osborne's decision last week to push back any pension tax changes, but the majority of earners are now missing out, a report released today argues.

According to the research by the Resolution Foundation, if Osborne had unveiled a flat rate of relief of 30 per cent at next week's Budget, a 30-year-old on an average salary who is saving at the rates required under auto-enrolment would have seen a boost of £11,200, or 13 per cent, in their pension pot by the time they reached retirement. On the other hand, somebody bringing home £60,000 a year would have missed out on £22,000, a fall of 14 per cent.

Meanwhile, a pensions Isa – which would see contributions to pensions be taxed but withdraws become tax-exempt – could have increased the average worker's pensions savings by 26 per cent, or £21,400, but it would have decreased the higher-paid worker's by 12 per cent, or £19,700.

"The chancellor was right to look at changes to pension tax relief, which is very expensive and disproportionately benefits higher earners," said Adam Corlett, economic analyst at the Resolution Foundation. "The savings challenge our country faces is to boost the retirement incomes of low-income households – not give tax breaks to high earners – and that should be the priority for reform."

The report states that the current pensions system is setting government back just less than £35bn a year, while the top one per cent of taxpayers rake in 13 per cent of total tax relief, making the argument for reform very strong.

But not if it upsets the Tory chums in the City.

Moonlighting?

Just watching the Chelsea-PSG match on BT Sport, being introduced by the ubiquitous Gary Lineker. Given the alleged size of his salary from the BBC, I would have thought that the BBC would have insisted on an exclusive contract.

Skiing

Sliding down hills on sticks?  I never saw the point, myself.  Just another excuse to wear bobble hats and expensive anoraks ...

 

Did the earth move?

The Guardian reports:

Leicester City’s success on the pitch has been sending shockwaves through the city with the celebrations of fans being picked up by equipment used to detect earthquakes.

Supporters jumping up and down at the King Power Stadium when Leicester grabbed an 89th-minute winner against Norwich City caused a quake with a magnitude of 0.3, researchers have said.

The team have been the surprise package in the Premier League and are clear at the top by five points with nine games left to play.

Doesn't happen at Easter Road, aka the Leith San Siro ...


 

They're talking about me

My local

The Observer has been visiting my hidey-hole in Andalucia and believes that the ex-pat community is anxious:

A brisk westerly wind blusters through the high-rise hotels and apartment blocks of the Costa del Sol, but the sun is warm. Along the urban stretch south of Málaga that runs from Torremolinos to Benalmádena and on to Fuengirola, Spanish families promenade along the seafront. But up around Benalmádena’s Bonanza Square, the bars are almost exclusively stocked with Brits, residents and holidaymakers: the middle-aged and the retired.

It’s a friendly, noisy place. Richie Hart has been in Málaga province for 18 months with his partner Kay Ritchie – they work long hours running their Welsh-themed bar. “There’s around 50 bars in this strip and I’d say about five are Spanish-owned,” said Hart.

Everyone knows that, if Britain leaves the European Union, the lives they came here for could change. One million of the 5.5 million Brits who have moved abroad live in Spain, and anyone who has lived here for less than 15 years, can vote in the in/out referendum on 23 June. Many keep up with the news at home through ferociously Eurosceptic newspapers such as the Daily Mail, but Brexit viewed from Spain carries its own specific risks. There is anxiety on the costas.

I'm not convinced.  If Brexit occurs (and it won't be before 2018 at the earliest), there may certainly be changes in the terms and conditions of expat residence in Spain but I find it difficult to believe that the authorities would risk either a wholesale de-population of the Costas or a significant reduction in the number of Brits coming out here.  As President Hollande would put it, there would be consequences ...

   

Music of the week

Capitalists unite - you can only lose your shirts

I'm not scratching my head; I'm simply grateful.  The Guardian reports:

Was that it? The year began with warnings to sell up and hunker down for another financial crisis. But now investors have been left scratching their heads after the FTSE 100 enjoyed its third week of gains to soar back to where it started 2016.

The index rallied 1% on Friday to close at 6,199.43, just shy of the 6,242.32 level at which it opened the year and above the 6,093 where it closed on the first trading day of the year.

It marks a 12% turnaround from a three-year low hit in February as the London blue-chip index slumped along with stock markets around the world. Investors had dumped shares amid a commodities rout and on worries about the global economic outlook and China’s economy in particular. As the sell-off deepened, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland warned clients: “Sell everything except high quality bonds.”

Put not your trust in city scribblers  - they know not their arse from their elbow ...

   

Project Fear

Mrs Cameron's diary reveals that Nancy has the answer:

Well fear is having the biggest moment which is totes :))) except I said to Mummy, it might sound easy but you try having to think of a new scary thing every day #projectfear? It is only week 2 & we have used up scary migrants & scary expensive holidays & the French bringing back icky squatters for scared English people #eek #typicalHollande :( Dave’s like, so how about, if we vote leave, Chinese people will literally buy up the whole of London #scary, Nancy’s like, soz Dad, that already happened, he’s like, OK, without wise EU regulations, greedy property barons will literally obliterate Britain’s precious heritage #terrifying, Nancy’s like, ditto, he’s like, plus your pension age could literally soar to 75 #spinechilling, Nancy’s like, ditto, he’s like, OK, this is good, if we leave the EU, sneering Putinist non-doms will literally bet on the outcome of degrading, pseudo gladiatorial tennis matches between the British premier and London’s mayor while global corporations pay less tax than a teaching assistant & literally absolutely everything will be run by Etonians for ever & ever, & we will have to put LITERALLY ED VAIZEY IN CHARGE OF LIBRARIES!!! Nancy’s like, srsly Dad, IRL, what libraries, how about this: literally the day after Britain votes leave Frau Merkel will summon house-sized Nazi zombies from their graves & laugh while they submerge our island home beneath innumerable layers of suffocating green slime #endtimes, Dave’s like, look, I know you are busy Nancy, but did you not READ the last dossier?

   

On Her Majesty's Secret Service

h/t Heather

Council tax

The proposals of the Scottish Government to amend the council tax by increasing it for those in properties in the four highest bands does absolutely nothing to address the major anomaly whereby the council tax bands are based on property valuations dating from 1991, some 25 years ago,

Accordingly, as each year passes, the tax bands become more and more remote from the reality of property values, as different kinds of housing in different parts of the country increase in value at differential rates; and the nonsense whereby new houses and flats are assessed for council tax band purposes on the basis of hypothetical 1991 values is perpetuated.

I appreciate that a nationwide property revaluation would be an expensive exercise (and that there would be winners and losers) but it will have to be done sooner or later.  Otherwise the inherent unfairnesses in the system will simply multiply.


 

Quote of the day

The London media are still in thrall to the evil genius of Nicola.  This from The Times:

It is not impossible that Nicola Sturgeon may be confusing people. While making a speech yesterday in London — where, for now at least, she can go without passing through border checks — Scotland’s first minister passionately urged British people to vote to keep the United Kingdom in the European Union. She said this despite probably hoping, equally passionately, that they don’t. And yet, despite officially hoping for an In, while secretly hoping for an Out, she does, actually, want to Remain. “My God,” you might be thinking. “The woman makes less sense than Boris.”

...  no, Sturgeon knows exactly what she is doing. She knows where this all might lead, and she knows what to do when we get there. The question is, does anybody else?

Well, certainly not the Tories, nor indeed Labour.  But that would only be the end of the beginning, so to speak ...

   

It used to be a quaint Mediterranean fishing village ...

... look at it now:



h/t Paul

Calm down dears!

Is the squabbling getting out of hand?  The Independent reports:

Iain Duncan Smith effectively accused David Cameron of having a “low opinion of the British people” on Sunday as attempts to keep Tory splits over Europe civil appeared to be unravelling. 

In remarks clearly aimed at the Prime Minister, the Work and Pensions Secretary hit out at those who warned of the economic impacts of a vote to leave the EU for “pessimistically downsizing” Britain’s role in the world.

Meanwhile George Osborne slapped down Boris Johnson for comparing himself to a man on a mission to rescue Britain from Brussels “baddies”.

“This isn’t some amusing adventure into the unknown – it’s deadly serious,” he said.

The Foreign Secretary, Phillip Hammond, also called the Eurosceptic MP Sir Bill Cash “a total shit” for releasing a Brussels legal report on the EU deal to the media despite an understanding that it was not to be published.

Childish.

   

Music of the week

   

Winter is coming

h/t Paul

Quote of the day

PMQs again.  From The Times (here):

Mr Corbyn raised the massive overspend by the prime minister’s own local NHS trust. What was he going to do about it? “Ask your mother!” shouted Carolyn Harris (Lab, Swansea East). Mama Cameron got attention recently for signing a petition against cuts to Oxfordshire services.

This was it. Time to weaponise Mater. “Ask my mother?” Mr Cameron scoffed, pushing the octogenarian into the front line. “I know what my mother would say. She would look across the dispatch box and say, ‘Put on a proper suit, do up your tie and sing the national anthem’.” I’m surprised he didn’t add “you grotty little oik”.

And then he did that trademark smirk that he gives when he thinks he has been clever. The toadies and sycophants loved it, of course, but when the howls and guffaws had stopped echoing round the hall, Mr Cameron seemed diminished. 

Bully, smug. privileged ...

 

In or Out?

As a semi-expat dividing my time between Edinburgh and Spain and as an ex-official who took the European Commission's shilling for a number of years in the Brussels melting-pot, I am irrevocably committed to the Remain camp.  So those of you of the Brexiter philosophy may wish to look away now.

I do not usually believe much of the opinions that banks pontificate, but HSBC seems to have it about right.  The Guardian reports:

The pound would fall 15%-20% against the dollar. The UK economy in 2017 would grow at only the half the rate currently expected. Inflation would be above 5% by the end of next year, creating a thumping policy headache for the Bank of England. This is HSBC’s “central case” for what would happen if the UK votes to leave the European Union. Too alarmist? No, it all sounds entirely plausible.

Note that HSBC was making short-term forecasts. The bank’s analysts were careful to state that, regardless of the outcome of the referendum, the UK would remain a flexible and strong economy that would “eventually achieve a strong economic performance in or out of the EU”. The short-term impact, however, could hardly fail to be severe.

And the short term impact would last at least two years, the time it would take to negotiate the UK's way out of the EU.

 

Boris at PMQs

The Guardian reports:

 “The mayor of London has suggested that leaving the EU would herald a return to the halcyon days of the British empire,” smirked Yvette Cooper. “Can the prime minister invite him to return to the 21st century?”

BoGo winced. Anywhere other than the 21st century would be preferable right now. The sudden reappearance of a conscience was proving more and more troubling. If only he had just been able to stand up and say ‘Vote me for prime minister’ and have done with it, rather than pretending to give much of a toss about whether Britain stayed in the EU. Bloodstains began to discolour BoGo’s shirt. He looked down at them, desperately hoping they were stigmata. They weren’t. They were bullet wounds and there was more to come when Labour’s Chris Leslie pulled out his AK-47 and observed that the pound was now trading at its lowest level since BoGo had come out in support of Brexit.

Enough was enough and BoGo staggered out of the chamber in search of a doctor.

Unfortunately the only one at hand was Dr Liam Fox, a eurosceptic who is so dim he is always at risk of being sued for political negligence. Fox’s contribution was to get the wrong end of the stick about Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. No surprise there, as there are few sticks which Fox manages to find the right end of. BoGo looked round, hoping for a miracle. Up stepped Owen Paterson, a man who makes Liam Fox look like an intellectual colossus. With friends like these ...

Old joke

The Independent reports:

In one of his stand-up sketches from a few year's back, comedian Frankie Boyle recalls a moment in a Glasgow pub when an Englishman asks for a lager and lime.

The barman's response (in thick Glaswegian accent): "Sorry pal, we don't do cocktails."

In that spirit, Tennent's, which brands itself as "Scotland's favourite pint", was clearly perplexed on Friday when someone asked them on Twitter why they don't do a low calorie version, perhaps along the lines of a Coors Light, or a Becks Blue.

To which it pointed out...

Photo of the day

Strange bedfellows:

Referendum blues

I have some sympathy with these views expressed in The Independent:

Oh I don’t know what to do. On the one hand, if we vote to stay in we’ll get David Cameron waving and smiling and looking triumphant, and doing anything to make that happen will make your soul go dark yellow and spew up green sticky liquid. But if we vote to leave, that would please Farage, and pleasing Farage must surely be illegal if we’ve made any progress at all since the thirteenth century.

It’s like watching Manchester United play Chelsea, you spend the whole time thinking of a way that both sides can lose.

...

Instead, the debate is about which side will manage to be more horrible to immigrants. So the Prime Minister makes statements such as “Due to the success of these talks, Romanians living in Britain will no longer be allowed in a Post Office until they’ve been working here for nine years.”

But Farage replies “What the British people want to know is when are Bulgarians going to be stopped from using our pavements? These are paid for by the British taxpayer, and if they can’t be bothered to hover, frankly they can go back home.

Mail

You know that you are getting old when you are shocked to realise that a first class stamp costs 63  pence (soon to be increased to 64 pence).

EU Summit

The Guardian identifies the probable outcome:

A .. likely outcome is the classic Brussels fudge: a messy compromise. The emergency brake on migrants’ in-work benefits is cut to two or three years, while Cameron has to accept that restrictions on child benefits will not apply to EU citizens already living in the UK. France and Germany refuse to allow Britain a veto on the functioning of the eurozone, and will only sign up to a bunch of warm words about not riding roughshod over non-euro members.

Cameron gets his declaration on ever closer union and the red-card system, as most other EU countries see them as symbolic gestures that do not change the status quo. Everyone declares victory and hopes they don’t have to return to the British question for a while.

Cynical?  Yes, but then the whole exercise is swamped in cynicism.

Music of the week

Quote of the day

From The Independent on the government's dispute with the doctors (here):

... the Government holds great responsibility for letting the dispute develop to its current pitch of acrimony. Mr Hunt has behaved disrespectfully almost throughout. He has treated one of the most productive and diligent elements of the British workforce as truculent and greedy. He has dismissed legitimate concerns as union tub-thumping. The final straw will, for many, be the imposition of this contract, and Mr Hunt – or, more likely, his successors – will be left to reap the consequences. 

Thankfully, the Scottish government appears to have adopted a more enlightened attitude.

   

Who cares about Rosie?

Damn few, it seems.  The Guardian paraphrases PMQs:

“I have a letter from a woman called Rosie,” said Jeremy Corbyn at prime minister’s questions. Rosie Winterton, Labour’s chief whip, looked up and smiled. Her leader had finally got round to reading something she had written. Corbyn was quick to disillusion her: “Rosie is in her 20s and wants to buy a house in London.” Winterton shrugged. In a good light …

In their previous exchanges at PMQs, David Cameron has often been caught off guard by Corbyn’s references to members of the public, unsure whether to laugh or adopt a solemn face. Now the prime minister had a plan; repeat Rosie’s name as often as possible. “I want Rosie to be able to buy her own house,” he said, “which is why I have brought in the help-to-buy Isa especially for Rosie.”

If Rosie has any sense she will steer well clear of the help-to-buy Isa that had been specially created for her, as she would end up saving money at a far slower rate than house inflation and would be even less likely to afford a home than at the start.

This is a serious problem - about time the politicos took it seriously.

   

Financial armageddon?

FTSE-100 over the past month

For those worried about the ongoing crash in share prices, The Independent takes a balanced approach:

At a time like this, it is probably most helpful to take a long perspective, and by coincidence the annual study by Credit Suisse Asset Management of markets going back to 1900 is just out. It looks at the three great financial crises of capitalism, the 1890s, the 1930s, and from 2008 onwards. The dip in the economy after the most recent one was not nearly as serious as the others, but the bounce-back has been somewhat slower. But what is fascinating is that, eventually, US share prices recovered in all three periods, with the present experience somewhere between the not-too-bad recovery after 1890 and the more hesitant one in the 1930s. Moral: that share prices eventually bounce back, provided you wait long enough for them to do so.

Me, I look upon it as a buying opportunity ...

Music of the week

Americans are crazy

The Times reports:

It is the rock-star vegetable of the moment, the brassica with brass, the unsung flower that flowered: cauliflower has hit the big time.

Demand fuelled by low-carb diet fads and supply problems arising from a cold snap in California and Arizona have driven prices in America for the humble vegetable to the absurd peaks usually reserved for exotic foods.

...

Shoppers have reported paying up to $8 a head — three times higher than normal. Mellissa Sevigny, a low-carb blogger in New York state, wrote a furious “break-up” letter to cauliflower. “You have turned into a real diva,” she complained after being charged $6.99 for “the tiniest, most anaemic head of cauliflower I had ever seen”. She added: “Someone needs to tell you to get over yourself and I love you enough to be that person.”

When will they discover the swede?

   

Quote of the week

From David Cameron's diary:

Monday

“So Boris,” I say. “It’s crunch time. Are you in or out?”

“Do you mean in of out?” says Boris Johnson. “Or out of in?”

I rub my eyes. Only with Boris do I need to have these conversations. It’s infuriating. Everybody agrees that his position is of paramount importance to whether my EU negotiations are considered a success or not. And yet, he never seems terribly interested in them.

“In of in,” I say. “Or out in out.”

“Wait,” says Boris. “How many referendums are we having?”

“One,” I say, firmly. Then I tell him that things are looking up. Because, after months of negotiation, I’m on the verge of striking a deal with Donald Tusk.

“That’s odd,” says Boris. “You’d think he’d be busy in New Hampshire.”

“Tusk,” I say. “Tusk.”

“Don’t tut at me,” says Boris, crossly. “You’re only the prime minister.”

   

For rugger buggers

If you have nothing else to do, you can watch the Georgia - Germany match here, live at 10.00 GMT, followed by the Russia - Spain match at 12.00 GMT.

I understand that there are some other international matches on later today ...

   

A result to cherish

Scotland rugby teams have had a fairly lean time of it in recent years, especially against the auld enemy.  So last night's match at Cumbernauld by the Under 20s against their English counterparts was something to savour.

As ever, the English lads were bigger and heavier than the Scots and they duly dominated the set-pieces.  But the Scots tackled like demons.  Even so it was surprising that the Scots picked up a couple of tries in the first half against two penalties for the English, turning around at 12-6 for the home side.

In the second half, English domination of the scrums intensified and wave after wave of white attacks were stoutly resisted by the boys in blue. Nevertheless, a brace of forays into the English 25 led to two more opportunist tries for the Scots, doubling their score to 24 points and leaving the English to reflect on their utter failure to convert possession and territory into points.

The future's bright and it's Scottish blue!



 

Is this necessary?

Oh dear, diacritics in danger.  The BBC reports (disdainfully refusing to employ the appropriate accents):

Suggested new spellings for more than 2,000 French words have sparked controversy.

The Academie Francaise proposed changes in 1990, including the deletion of the circumflex accent and hyphens in some words, but they were optional.

Now publishers say they will include the new spellings in schoolbooks.

France's education minister has said the changes will not culminate in the end of circumflex and that both spellings will remain correct.

La fin mince of the wedge, I believe.

As Le Monde makes clear, the circumflex will be retained in some cases:

...  la réforme ne « tue » pas vraiment l’accent circonflexe. En réalité, celui-ci serait facultatif sur les « i » et les « u », mais demeurerait sur les « a » et « o ». En outre, il resterait employé dans d’autres cas :

• Au passé simple : nous suivîmes, nous voulûmes, nous aimâmes ; vous suivîtes, vous voulûtes, vous aimâtes…

• À l’imparfait du subjonctif (troisième personne du singulier) : qu’il suivît, qu’il voulût, qu’il aimât…

• Au plus-que-parfait du subjonctif : qu’il eût suivi, il eût voulu, qu’il eût aimé…

• Lorsqu’il apporte une distinction de sens utile : dû, jeûne, mûr, sûr… Dès lors que l’enlever créerait une confusion de sens entre deux mots (« mûr » et « mur », par exemple).

So the circumflex disappears above i and u (apart from those pedants with a predilection for the imperfect and pluperfect subjunctives) but is retained for a and o.  Where is the logic in that?  And what about e?

It's all a bit of a mystery ...

 

What to make of the EU deal?

Well, don't expect any help from The Guardian:

There was still a long way to go and the deal was far from sealed, Dave soothingly cajoled, but “what we’ve got is what I basically asked for”. It was the basically that gave the game away, because basically he hasn’t. There’s a huge gulf between what he promised in the 2015 election manifesto and what he’s hoping to get but hasn’t yet got. “People said this wouldn’t happen,” he continued. But it has. Exactly as everyone predicted.

“At the beginning, there were people who said I should start the negotiations by kicking over the table,” Dave said, waving his arms and pumping his fists. The bags that have appeared under his eyes over the past few months jogged up and down in time. Still, the Siemens employees who had been co-opted as his audience remained largely unmoved – and just as confused as Dave about what had and hadn’t been achieved. Some were wearing white coats; waiting to take Dave away, presumably.

Dave dug deep in search of the Cicero within. No joy there. “But I chose to go about it in a calm and measured way,” he said. So calm and measured that he has managed to negotiate almost everything the EU was already quite happy to concede. “We’ve got an emergency brake on benefits to migrants,” he said. “It’s a very special emergency brake. It’s an emergency brake that will last for X and only if Y and Z also happen.” And what were X, Y and Z? Dave couldn’t say, because the other 27 countries hadn’t yet agreed on the exact definitions of both emergency and brake. In mathematical terms, it’s known as the Cameron conjecture.

Some of us would describe it as a farce ...