Quote of the day (2)

From The Times (here):

Markets hate uncertainty. Or at least so you keep reading. Every time you do, remember that it’s nonsense. Markets trade and thrive on uncertainty. If everyone is certain, no one buys or sells anything. A certain market would be one that didn’t move, ever.

And my loss is your buying opportunity ...

 

Armageddon postponed

At the time of writing, the FTSE 100 is down by a mere 12 points, less than 0.25%.

I suppose I can now close that window.

 

Quote of the day

From The Guardian (here):

The Brexiters have won the referendum but seem to have little idea of what to do after victory.

Do they want access to the EU single market or not? We have heard endless claims that the UK, armed with a bigger economy and greater negotiating clout, can secure a better deal than Switzerland, Norway or Canada. But nobody has agreed what this model might be. A degree of vagueness was inevitable, but there is a world of difference between constructive ambiguity and not having any concrete negotiating principles.

But access to the single market implies some acceptance of free movement of labour.  Which is presumably why no-one on the Leave side is prepared to face up to the difficult choices.

 

Wee problem for Jeremy

The Guardian reports:

More than half of the Labour shadow cabinet is expected to stand down on Sunday in a major coup against Jeremy Corbyn, triggered by the result of the EU referendum and the leader’s decision to sackHilary Benn.

The decision of Heidi Alexander, the shadow health secretary, to resign on Sunday morning is seen as hugely significant, because unlike Benn she was a more “loyal and pragmatic” member of the Corbyn team, a Labour source said:

She is seen as a moderate, practical and pragmatic voice. Hilary always had a problem with Jeremy. Now that Heidi’s gone, most of the shadow cabinet will step down. He can’t just replace those positions because other front bench ministers won’t step up to the roles.

Loyal members of shadow cabinet told the Guardian they were now writing their resignation letters in a coup that will be impossible for Corbyn to contain.

Smile of the day

Wheels within wheels

Musings in The Sunday Times on the next general election:

If our representative system is to retain its integrity, there will surely have to be a general election, perhaps as soon as the autumn. The new Tory new prime minister, presumably Boris Johnson, will need to go to the country, seeking a mandate for withdrawal.

If the UK wants what it voted for last week, he will win it by a landslide, and the constitutional part of our present crisis, at least, will be solved. But then again, he may not win it, especially if Labour elects a more credible leader than Jeremy Corbyn. It is, after all, the overwhelming desire of 90% of Labour MPs, almost all the trade unions, and a majority of Labour voters, that Britain remains within the EU.

Johnson, of course, may not want to risk an election on a platform of withdrawal, not least because it would almost certainly lead to a split in the Tory party.

Interesting.  Boris would presumably seek a mandate involving some kind of association agreement with the EU (either as part of the EEA or otherwise), even if that meant abandoning opposition to free movement of labour.  As to what position the Labour Party might adopt, I haven't a scooby ...

   

Music of the week

Our next prime minister

You may wonder if Boris is up to the job.  But, hey, it's inevitable.  The Guardian reports:

The blunt truth is that nobody else in Conservative politics gets begged for selfies as Johnson did on every walkabout; none has his charisma or his reach. If his name is on a shortlist of two put forward to Tory members, few doubt he would be the runaway winner.

And if MPs conspire to keep him off that list during the preliminary stages of the contest? Well, imagine the consequences for those who have already outraged constituents by voting remain. Imagine the rage, the mass defections to Ukip, were Johnson to be seen to be blocked by yet another elite afraid of ordinary people getting it wrong.

Far from sure that a country led by Boris is one in which I wish to live ...

 

This is going to get complicated

The implications of Brexit are becoming apparent.  The Guardian reports:

The UK has to negotiate two exit agreements: a divorce treaty to wind down British contributions to the EU budget and settle the status of the 1.2 million Britons living in the EU and 3 million EU citizens in the UK; and an agreement to govern future trade and other ties with its European neighbours.

Tusk has estimated that both agreements could take seven years to settle “without any guarantee of success”. Most Brussels insiders think this sounds optimistic.

At the same time. the UK and Scottish governments need to decide what to do about the vast body of domestic legislation giving effect to EU policies in such areas as the environment, consumer protection, financial regulation, agriculture and fisheries, and so on.  This is likely to be the centrepiece of parliamentary business for years to come.  And none of it will be easy.

Relieved!

OK, it's not good but the FTSE100 is sticking at 6025 or thereabouts, down 5% on last night's close.  Far from the 15-20% decline predicted by the doom-mongers.

   

Weird

The FTSE 100 has recovered from a low of close to 5800 to well over 6000.  Sterling has recovered from a low of $1.34 to over $1.37.

Meanwhile, Cameron is going without invoking Article 50 to initiate Brexit negotiations with the EU on the grounds that it would be for a new PM to decide.  And, possibly, that new PM - whoever he or she turns out to be - may conclude that he should not invoke Article 50 until he has secured his position by means of a general election.  Which raises the question of whether a new government would feel obliged to pursue Brexit - depending on the manifesto on which it had been elected.

Old Heraclitus had it right when he said all is flux and nothing remains the same.

   

Only one of the questions ...

From The Guardian (here):

Britain now has to decide what sort of arrangement it wants to have with the EU. Does it want to remain part of the single market even if that means accepting free movement of labour? Or does it want to go for a complete go-it-alone approach, which would give the new government a freer hand on immigration?

Or should we look for an option somewhere between this binary choice.  And we do not know what position the EU will be prepared to accept.

Furthermore, even the Brexiteers seem unsure what they want.


   

"All is flux; nothing stays the same."

The people have spoken.  What happens now is the question.  And none of our politicians has a clue ...


 

Ruth Davidson tells it like it is

Still in the trough

From CityWire's press summary (here):

• The Guardian: TalkTalk paid its chief executive, Dido Harding, an extra £1.8 million last year when the telecoms company suffered a cyber-attack that cost it £60 million and 101,000 customers.

• Daily Mail: Dairy Crest boss Mark Allen has seen his pay go up by almost 50% in the past year, despite the firm reporting a 59% fall in profits.

• Financial Times: SABMiller’s chief executive took a £1.2 million cut in total pay last year but will shortly be in line receive a payout of £55 million — once the London-listed brewing group is taken over by larger rival Anheuser-Busch InBev.

   

Cluck cluck!

Not sure that likening the electorate to a bunch of chickens is a good idea:

They think it's all over ...

Well, maybe it is.  Bloomberg reports:

European stock futures surged, Asian equities rallied and the pound strengthened by the most in three months amid signs Britons are warming toward the European Union ahead of a referendum on Thursday. The yen slumped with Treasuries and gold as haven assets fell out of favor.

FTSE 100 futures soared as much as 3.3 percent, while contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50 jumped more than 3 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose by the most in two months. Sterling jumped after a poll showed the campaign for the U.K. to remain in the EU leading by three percentage points. The euro strengthened with high-yielding currencies, while the yen fell for the first time in seven days.

Me, I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

   

Music of the week

 

Sir Philip before the Select Committee

Is it fair to subject a knight of the realm to such a grilling?

Big Phil set the tone by rolling his eyelids at the committee while sitting down and his performance became progressively more unstable the longer the session dragged on. First in line was Conservative Richard Fuller, who he believed was looking at him in a funny way. “Stop staring at me like that,” he demanded. Then he had a pop at another Tory, Jeremy Quin, for playing with his glasses in an annoying way. The committee clerk was ticked off for whispering and Labour’s Karen Buck, aka “That Lady”, was called out for being a mind-reader in a former life. Most bizarrely of all, the reporter from the Sunday Times was all but accused of bringing about the collapse of BHS by investigating the deal.

“I’m not here to blame anyone because that’s not my style,” he insisted. “But there are some other people I could mention who are to blame.” Quite.

“Can we get back to talking about some of the details?” asked co-chair Frank Field. “I’m afraid I don’t understand the question,” said an apparently bemused Big Phil. Field tried again. “Can we get back to talking about the some of the details?”

“That’s not the right question to be asking me,” insisted Big Phil second time round. This became a familiar pattern; almost every question was either too difficult or not the right one. It’s fair to say that Big Phil has concentration issues as well as trust issues.

   

You looking at me, pal ...

Splendid rant in The Guardian:

Ours is a broken economic system, rigged in favour of a tiny wealthy elite whose fortunes more than doubled even as the wages of millions fell. It is an elite riddled with contempt for democracy, and will be damned if anybody wishes publicly to scrutinise its affairs. It is happy to treat the state as a cash cow but reluctant to pay taxes to contribute to its upkeep. It drips with machismo and arrogance, believing that rules exist for the little people. It is more interested in short-term profit than long-term innovation and investment, putting the bank balances of a few ahead of the interests either of workers or society as a whole. It has no interest in accepting responsibility for problems it has caused, and will shamelessly redirect blame anywhere else. And if this system were to take human form, it would surely be Sir Philip Green.

Who would disagree ...

 
 

Hooks, crooks and comic singers

These are not very nice people.  The Guardian reports:

Dominic Chappell, the former owner of BHS, had his “fingers in the till” of the failed retailer and “threatened to kill” its chief executive after he was confronted about taking money out of the business, according to explosive allegations made to MPs.

...

Other allegations from the hearing into the collapse of BHS, which has put 11,000 jobs at risk, included:

• Chappell claiming that retail tycoon Sir Philip Green, who sold the business to him, was to blame for its collapse. 

• that Green went “insane” when he found out that BHS was in talks with Mike Ashley’s Sports Direct about a rescue deal, so he blocked it and forced BHS into administration.

• Chappell’s consortium, Retail Acquisitions, collected at least £17m from BHS despite owning it for just 13 months.

• the consortium put none of its own funds into BHS, instead the £15m it injected into BHS came from a £5m loan from a property company and £10m from Green.

Chappell later claimed allegations by Topp of a death threat were “a nonsense”. After the hearing, he told the Guardian: “What I said to him was ‘when I get back to the office I will fucking sort you out’.” Chappell said he meant he was going to fire Topp but let it go because of the “gravity of what was going on”.

Extraordinary.

Quote of the day

From The New Statesman (here):

It is the season of bed-wetting. For those who follow politics closely – we anxious few – every new poll, whether from the UK or the US, is arriving freighted with apocalyptic significance.

It’s true that the stakes are high. In five months’ time, we could be standing among the smoking ruins of liberal democracy. The Trump coat of arms will be emblazoned on the dome of the Capitol. The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, will be making tinny jokes about bulldogs as Vladimir Putin moves tanks to the Finnish border.

On the other hand, the post-war order may be looking remarkably intact, Britain having voted emphatically to Remain, a liberal Atlanticist with unexciting ideas installed in the Oval Office, and the England football team having returned home from France after three matches of unbearable mediocrity.

   

Smile of the day

Here

Music of the week

Basically, it is Romeo and Juliet, compressed into less than three minutes:




 

He doesn't like hotdogs ...

Nor is it my favourite.  The Guardian reports:

To my mind, the hotdog is the bastard cousin of the burger. The meat-to-bread ratio tips too far towards the bun, and they’re made with frankfurters, the most disgusting food known to man. Does anyone enjoy their flaccid smoothness, laced with gristle and offputtingly pink? Eating a frankfurter is like licking Cristiano Ronaldo. It mystifies me that Frankfurt – birthplace of Goethe, financial powerhouse, site of two botanical gardens – would want eternal association with mechanically recovered meat paste. It’s not champagne, is it?

Maybe it's the mustard?
   
    

Brexit - what if?

The Independent indulges itself in some rather wild speculation on the outcome of a vote in favour of Brexit:

Nicola Sturgeon has made no secret of her desire for another referendum should Britain choose to leave the EU. She has already argued, rightly, that the last independence referendum in Scotland was based on a background of Britain remaining a part of the EU. 

With the backdrop changed so dramatically, based largely on English votes, the calls for another independence vote will be deafening. And this time the Scottish Nationalists know they will win. 

Given a choice between leaping into the unknown handcuffed to England and remaining as part of a stable (if risky) European Union, Scots will take their chances with Europe. More than just avoiding a leap into the unknown, remaining as part of the EU while England leaves represents a once-in-a-lifetime economic opportunity for Scotland. 

Every business that might consider leaving England for mainland Europe following a Brexit might instead consider moving to Scotland. Scotland will probably adopt the Euro as currency, is more conveniently situated for mainland Europe than Ireland and has a highly advanced renewable energy sector. 

The numbers don’t even need to be huge for Scotland to emerge as a big economic winner. If 5 per cent of American companies in the UK moved their European HQ north it would be a major economic windfall for the country. 

Plenty of Brexit campaigners want Britain to remain whole; they argue that Scotland wouldn’t become an automatic member of the EU and may not achieve favorable membership terms. But alternatively – and just as likely – the EU desperately, wanting to stick it to England, might fast track Scottish membership, granting the country very favorable terms indeed. Independence is tantalisingly within reach; Sturgeon must be willing the English to do their part.

Aye, well.  There are several unprovable assumptions underlying such an argument.  First, that Scotland votes Remain, while England votes Leave; neither of these propositions may turn out to be valid.  Secondly, that such a situation would necessarily lead to another IndyRef and that Scotland would vote for independence; again, neither of these may prove to be the case.  And thirdly, that - even if Scotland were to adopt the euro - the EU would be prepared to do Scotland any favours in order to stick it to England.

It all might just happen, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Music of the week

Do we hate the Chinese that much?

Oh dear!  Sino-Scottish relations are being set back to the levels of the Cold War.  The Times reports:

It has been the favourite tipple of Glaswegians for more than a century. Now Tennent’s lager is poised to be the toast of Beijing.

The Clydeside brewery has struck a deal to distribute drinks in China as it seeks to capitalise on a growing thirst for beer in the world’s second-largest economy. Sales were given a boost in November when David Cameron and President Xi were pictured enjoying a pint of Greene King IPA in an English pub.

Annual consumption of beer in China is forecast to reach about 61 billion litres this year, almost 60 litres per person. C&C, the Dublin drinks group that owns Tennent’s, has agreed a distribution deal with Vandergeeten, a long-established importer of beer into China, which has a portfolio including Leffe, Hoegaarden and Boddingtons.

It's for your own good?

Does anybody want more ads on the telly?  The European Commission appears to think so.  The Times reports:

Broadcasters should be allowed to place more adverts into prime time television and make more liberal use of product placement, the European Commission said yesterday.

Rules on programme sponsorship should also be relaxed, the commission said, as it unveiled proposals aimed at updating the law in the age of Netflix and other on-demand video services.

Under European law, commercial broadcasters are limited to a maximum of 12 minutes of advertising per hour. The commission wants to remove this cap and allow adverts to form up to 20 per cent of output from 7am to 11pm.

Films made for television, cinematographic works and news “could be interrupted more often”, the commission said in a proposal document.

The plans for loosening restrictions on product placement and sponsorship were welcomed by ITV, which said that they would “help to ensure the continued investment in original content”.

A spokesman added: “What is important to us, when it comes to television advertising minutage, is striking the right balance, ensuring that our viewers are not exposed to excessive amounts of advertising and that the quality of their experience is maintained.”

If the ITV spokesman were honest, he would admit that they don't give a toss about the viewers; they only want to maximise their revenue.  ITV should remember that, in certain circumstances, more means less ...

   

Heartless?

More here.

 

Yeurrgh!

Smile of the day

Here

 

Happy Birthday ...

... to Bob Dylan, 75 today.

Don't that make you feel old?

 

Quote of the day

The Guardian gets a little bit carried away in reporting the Dave and George anti-Brexit roadshow:

Halfway through their hit song With or Without EU, Dave Bono gestured towards George the Edge instructing him to turn the volume down. Moments later, when a reverent silence filled the room, Dave Bono started a meaningful slow hand clap. One by one, the hand-picked audience of employees who fancied an hour off work joined in this rhythmic communion.

“Hello Southampton,” Dave Bono drawled. “Every time I clap my hand another person in the UK loses their job. Think about it.” George the Edge peeled off a power chord and the band went straight back into the chorus. “With or without EU …” The audience all yelled: “With.”

The atrium of the B&Q headquarters on England’s south coast was not the most likely venue for the latest gig in EU2’s Rolling Thunder Bankruptcy Referendum tour, but it served a purpose. If only as the punchy bass line for the gag “Leaving the EU will bring on a DIY recession”, which was repeated far more times than was strictly necessary. Subtlety has never been EU2’s strong point. EU2 did not get where they are today by overestimating the intelligence of their fans – though it’s quite possible they did get where they are today by overestimating quite a few other things.

 
   

Miserable git

Well, what else would you call a guy earning a six figure salary who buys his wife a clapped-out Nissan Micra as a "run-around"?  The BBC reports:

Prime Minister David Cameron has bought a £1,500 used car as a "cheap run-around" for his wife, according to the salesman he bought it from.

Showroom owner Iain Harris, 44, said he thought a call from the PM's security team saying he was interested in the compact car was a "wind-up".

Mr Cameron paid £1,495 for the Nissan Micra in Minster Lovell, Oxfordshire, on Friday.

   

Propaganda

Actually, Turkey is very far from fulfilling the complex requirements for admission to the EU.  Even if it were to join the EU, as with previous entrants, there would be lengthy transitional arrangements barring free movement of Turkish nationals into existing member states.

 

Music of the week

   

Dinosaurs

Rubbing salt in the wound?  The Guardian reports:

The veteran golf commentator Peter Alliss has suggested that women who want to play at Muirfield should marry a member.

The 85-year-old former Ryder Cup player was reacting to a vote on accepting women into the club, that narrowly failed to achieve the two-thirds majority required to bring about change. Muirfield has staged the Open Championship 16 times, most recently in 2013, but it has been taken off the Open rota as a result of women being denied permission to join.

Alliss, one of the most distinctive voices in golf, told BBC Radio 5 Live: “The women who are there as wives of husbands, they get all the facilities. If somebody wants to join, well you’d better get married to somebody who’s a member."

Silly old buffer ...

You have to feel sorry for her

What?  Oh, the Gracious Speech.  The Guardian sets the scene:

The Queen winced. The crown seemed to get heavier every year and her knees were playing up, despite having used the lift in the House of Lords for the first time. As she waited for the members of the House of Commons to turn up, she couldn’t help but notice that a large number of peeresses were sporting Donald Trump haircuts. It wasn’t a good look, even with a diamond tiara. Someone should have a quiet word. At least there were a few familiar faces. It was always good to catch up with the Maltravers Herald Extraordinary and the Rouge Croix Pursuivant.

Rowdy chatter from the far end of the chamber signalled the arrival of the MPs. Some of them had no manners. “My government will continue to...,” she began. A moment’s panic crossed her face. Had someone given her a copy of last year’s Queen’s speech? She could clearly remember announcing the northern powerhouse, a bill of rights and the anti-extremism bill and a number of other bits also felt worryingly familiar. Never mind. Every job had its downsides. The state opening of parliament just happened to be hers.

“Prince Philip and I look forward to the visit of the president of Colombia,” she continued. “Speak for yourself, Liz,” the Duke of Edinburgh muttered under his breath. The Queen was well practised in ignoring her husband’s interventions and pressed on. Something about buses and a space port. Flybe flight 253 from Newquay to Mars will be boarding at gate two. Who wrote this bollocks, as Emily Thornberry would no doubt say? Ah well, nearly there. “Other measures will be laid before you. My lords and members of the House of Commons, I pray that the blessing of Almighty God may rest upon your counsels.” she concluded. Some hope.

   

A vision of hell

Fake bomb at Old Trafford

Interesting that neither The Guardian nor The Times is prepared to name the so-called "private company" that failed to take away the fake bomb in the toilets at Old Trafford after a "training exercise" earlier in the week, causing the evacuation of the stadium and the postponement of the match.  Nor is the BBC.

Why not?

   

Silly Boris

The Independent is less than impressed by Boris comparing the EU with Hitler:

Contemplating the latest droplet of Hitlerian idiocy, this one from Boris Johnson’s noble brow, all manner of laws, acronyms and Latin phrases come to mind.

Whenever anyone makes reference to the Fuhrer, you think of Godwin’s Law, which effectively states that the longer any debate (specifically on the internet) continues, the closer to 100 per cent grows the likelihood that Adolf will be cited.

Other reference points include HDS (Hitler Derangement Syndrome); “reductio ad Hitlerum”; PLMHF (Post-London Mayoral Hitler Fixation; see Kenneth Livingstone); and the general rule of thumb that regardless of the subject – EU membership, fracking, how to grow cherry tomatoes in an east-facing garden – an argument is lost the instant someone brings you-know-who out of the closet.

All the above may apply to Boris’s comparison between Hitler’s dream of rediscovering “the golden age of peace and prosperity under the Romans” with the EU’s attempt “to do this by different methods.” But the acronym of choice is DBS. 

Don’t. Be. Silly.

Splendid!

   

Pass the sickbag, Alice

 

Music of the week

Feeling belligerent?

See daughters!

Dave has family problems, as revealed by SamCam's diary:

Well I have never known Nancy so cross with Dave, he’s like, I was only saying what everybody thinks, she’s like, Dad, do you know how long I SPENT crafting that Churchill speech “the serried rows of white headstones”, total Project Fear gold, & now all anybody can talk about is Nigeria & tax havens & all because YOU could not stop showing off, you should be ashamed of yourself at your age :((( Dave’s like, wait Nancy, the Queen did it too, how come I am in trouble when she did the exact same thing? Nancy’s like, hello, was the Queen idiotic enough to call a referendum, honestly Dad you do not deserve to win, if you want to embarrass yourself go ahead, but have you thought how it makes ME look, & canunot check your phone while I’m talking, there are weeks to go & we have already used up war, pestilence & famine, I was saving death for later, but so what, nobody seems to care :(

   

Silly money

The Guardian reports on the BBC's travails over high salaries for presenters:

Gary Lineker, Chris Evans and Graham Norton will be among a group of BBC stars forced to declare how much they are paid as part of plans unveiled in a white paper on the future of the corporation published on Thursday.

The BBC will be told to reveal the pay of presenters who earn more than the £450,000 a year paid to director general Tony Hall – a plan described as a “poachers’ charter” by media executives who say rivals could use the new rules to pick off the BBC’s best-paid presenters.

How much do they get paid?

The three-year contract Evans negotiated with the BBC last year is thought to have netted him as much as £2m a year for presenting Top Gear and his Radio 2 breakfast show.

Other high earners at the BBC include: Match of the Day presenter Lineker (on a reported £2m); Norton (just under £2m); and Clare Balding (as much as £2m). None of these figures have been confirmed by the BBC.

Would anybody care if these four were "poached" by Sky or ITV?  (Nobody else would be daft enough to pay them these kind of salaries.)  It's not as if they were particularly good at their jobs.

   

Lost in space

Iain Duncan Smith is oblivious to his internal contradictions:

The EU’s institutions, Mr Duncan Smith said, were “irredeemably unwieldy”, its processes as slow-moving as treacle. It is unlikely ever to agree on a trade deal with the United States. Yet on Day 1 of Brexit, Brussels will bend over backwards to sort us out with a great deal.

“We are the fifth largest economy in the world,” he said. “Are you telling me that we aren’t going to be able to arrive at a deal that is particular to the UK? I don’t think so. I think that they will do that straight away.”

And not only will the Eurocrats be burning the midnight oil to sort us out with a splendid deal, but they will suddenly decide that reform is the way ahead for themselves. “Brexit might be the shock to the EU system that is so desperately needed,” Mr Duncan Smith said. “Given we are so uninfluential inside the EU, our maximum moment of influence might be in leaving.”

He is a mass of contradictions. Brussels is incompetent but will be efficient once we leave; it is never going to improve but seemingly eager to reform; and Britain should leave because it is the most European-friendly thing to do.

 Imagine - this guy was once the leader of the Tory Party ...

 

We're a' doomed, I tell ya

Project Fear is becoming ridiculous.  The Times reports:

Leaving the European Union would immediately cause the value of the pound to plummet by as much as 20 per cent, while income tax would have to rise to counter cuts in migration, a respected think tank has warned.

A vote to leave would result in a “significant shock to the UK economy”, the non-partisan National Institute for Economic and Social Research has said, as it presented prospects for the UK up to 2030 in the event of Brexit.

The think tank looked at trading scenarios that the UK might face following a vote to leave the EU, including models in which Britain had the same deal as Switzerland or Norway. Yet in every model analysed, wages, household consumption and trade suffered.

Seven plagues next ...

   

Now who's "fantastically corrupt"?

The gravy train re-fuels when it stops at the station:

Dozens of MPs’ staff were given nearly £1m in redundancy payments prior to the general election just weeks before returning to another publicly funded job, the expenses watchdog has disclosed.

Analysis from the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (Ipsa) also showed that staff members related to MPs were paid on average £5,600 more than unrelated staff members during the last parliament.

The disclosures came in a report into MPs’ winding-up costs just before the last general election.

The report shows 125 staff members received £925,000 in tax-free redundancy payments with a break of employment of less than 10 weeks.

In each case, the staff member was made redundant as a result of their employer standing down or losing their seat at the election and entered into a new employment with a different MP within two months of their prior employment ending.

     

Not my experience

The Guardian reports:

Harrowing accounts of elderly people suffering and dying alone after being sent home from hospital too soon are related in a report from an NHS watchdog, which says too many vulnerable patients are being failed by the discharge system.

Dame Julie Mellor, the parliamentary and health service ombudsman, recounted the experiences of nine patients and their distressed families but added that these were only a fraction of the total number of such cases.

Perhaps the Scottish Health Service has a different practice.  On all three occasions in the past 18 months during which I underwent operations, the Edinburgh Western General was most reluctant to let me go, even although I am a relatively fit elderly person.  On one occasion, I had to discharge myself; on another, I had to get my sister to collect me in order to avoid spending another night in hospital.

I found the experiences intensely frustrating but I have no doubt that the actions of the hospital staff were motivated by the best of intentions.

 

Deja vu again

Will the crisis never end?  The Guardian reports:

It’s that time of year again. Greece is running out of money. There are violent protests in Athens. Eurozone finance ministers are gathering in Brussels in an “emergency” conclave to decide what to do next.

The International Monetary Fund has already made it clear what it thinks should happen. It says Europe should cut Greece some slack by easing the terms of its bailout agreement and offering a solid dose of debt relief.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, has said that if Germany and its allies in the Eurogroup of finance ministers insist on making unrealistic demands of Greece she will not risk any more of the fund’s money.

This makes sense because it appears clear to all but the hardliners that the situation in Greece has become a mixture of the tragic and the absurd. Tragic, because theThis makes sense because it appears clear to all but the hardliners that the situation in Greece has become a mixture of the tragic and the absurd. Tragic, because the economy has shrunk by a quarter in the past eight years – equivalent to the contraction that the US suffered in the Great Depression – and the unemployment rate is 24.4%. Absurd because most of the €86bn (£68bn) that has been earmarked for Greece – provided it pushes through a raft of demand-destroying measures – will go straight out again to pay the country’s main creditors: the European Central Bank and the IMF. And with each bailout (this is the third since 2010), Greece’s debt mountain gets bigger.

More can-kicking on the cards, I suspect ...

Don't give up the day job, Boris

 

When is a veto not a veto?

Does Iain Duncan Smith understand the EU processes?  The BBC reports:

Germany had a "de facto veto" over David Cameron's EU renegotiations, ex-minister Iain Duncan Smith has said.

He told the Sun the PM ditched plans in 2014 to demand an emergency brake on migration after Germany objected.

...

Ahead of a speech on the EU and welfare on Tuesday, Mr Duncan Smith has made his most outspoken attack to date on the PM's attempts to negotiate a better deal for the UK in the EU, which concluded in February, telling the newspaper they had "failed".

The former Conservative leader, who resigned from the cabinet last month in a dispute over disability benefit cuts, described the concessions gained as "very marginal" and suggested that, in return, the UK had lost its veto on future fiscal and political integration within the eurozone.

"The EU knew that our veto was very powerful and we have given it away," he told the newspaper.

It is indeed the case that Germany had a veto over the EU re-negotiations.  And so did every other Member State, right down to tiny Malta.  Which is why Cameron was always going to struggle in his efforts to secure a reasonable deal.  But that’s the way of the EU (except in matters of lesser import, where there is an arrangement for decision by qualified majority).

As for the UK losing its veto on future developments within the eurozone, I cannot see that anything has changed.  As it chose to opt out of the euro, the UK has only ever had a marginal influence on policy decisions made within the eurozone and then only to the extent that any such decisions had a significant impact on the UK itself.  Nothing in the re-negotiations changes this position.  On the other hand, if the UK were to leave the EU, than any remaining formal influence over the EU would be totally lost.

Don't hold your breath

How long before Cameron actually does anything?  The Times reports:

Britain’s sovereignty over a third of the world’s tax havens makes it “uniquely placed” to reduce corruption by lifting secrecy on the ownership of companies and trusts, a group of 300 leading economists writes today.

It a letter to world leaders before an anti-corruption summit being hosted by David Cameron in London on Thursday, the economists say that there is no justification for tax havens and urge the prime minister to take action to clamp down on them.

Aye, well, it's not gonna happen soon.  The article goes on:

The Times revealed on Saturday that commitments included in draft versions of the summit communiqué had been watered down. A demand that registers of the true ownership of offshore companies should be made public has been reduced to a commitment that law enforcement agencies and others can access the information.

Anything to avoid upsetting his pals in the City ...

 

Music of the week

Backstory here

 

Not music of the week

h/t Heather

Election blues

So there you go.

The SNP denied an absolute majority, having lost 6 seats overall, and securing only 63 seats out of the total 129.  They will still be able to govern of course, but will have to be a little more careful than would otherwise be the case.  Not necessarily a Bad Thing.

Congrats to the Greens, who increased their participation from 2 to 6 seats (and forced the LibDems down into 5th place).  Definitely a Good Thing.

Labour walloped, losing 13 seats to end up with 24.  Not a Good Thing, but if they take a tumble to themselves and undergo a serious refresh, then the future may not be wholly gloomy.  But, for all of our sakes, keep hold of the admirable Kezia, my erstwhile fellow blogger.

And the Tories?  Gaining 16 seats, to end up with 31 and the sought-after place as the main opposition.  We will wait and see if that is a Good Thing or a Bad Thing.

   

What is the world coming to?

And so I find that my new MSP is a kick-boxing lesbian Tory.  Not that I am prejudiced, but - horror of horrors - apparently she supports Dunfermline Athletic.

 

Bar graph of the day

From The Independent (here):

Crocodile tears?

Apparently, the bookies are crying into their beer about having to pay out on Leicester's footballing success.  The BBC reports:

The betting industry is licking its financial wounds.

"In the history of betting, certainly since it was legalised in 1961, a [single event] winner with odds of 5,000-1 has never happened," says Simon Clare from the betting firm Coral. "Every bookmaker is crying out in pain."

"That's a barometer of what Leicester have done and just how amazing this win is."Jessica Bridges from rival Ladbrokes agrees.

"This is the biggest sporting upset of all time. We've all got a bit of egg on our face."

Bookmakers have been cheering Leicester's success, whilst simultaneously putting their hands in their collective pockets.

Aye, sure.  In reality, most bookmakers are happy to pay out on the occasional long-odds winner. As any serious punter will tell you, bookies only get hurt when the favourites win.  For every lucky punter who backed Leicester, think of the many thousands putting money on the likes of  Manchester Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal - on which bets the bookies did not have to pay out.

The one thing you can be sure of:  whatever the result, the bookies will bemoan their fate.

 Update

The Guardian agrees:

Football backers are creatures of habit. They like to bet the “big” teams like Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool, and they try to overcome the inevitable short odds by stitching their fortunes together in accumulator bets. If just one team fails to win, the whole bet goes down, and this season, the big names have all been failing with metronomic regularity.

The collective underperformance of the “big” teams is evident in the placed runners behind Leicester. Tottenham started the campaign at 150-1, while West Ham, who could yet sneak into the top four, were 3,000-1.

Alex Donohue, who handles Ladbrokes’ football PR, acknowledged this point on Tuesday. “It’s a falsehood if any bookie says they have lost money overall on Leicester,” Donohue said on Twitter. “£3m is a record net payout for a title winner, but we did well out of Leicester upsetting the odds to get there. No complaints at all.”

The bookies may have made a net loss on the outright “win” market for the Premier League, but that liability was handsomely offset by their winnings from the results of the 380 matches, on the weekend coupons and Sunday’s high-profile televised games in particular.

   

Stat of the day

From The Times (here):

The single most depressing number published last week was the revelation from the Institute for Fiscal Studies that 43.8 per cent of British adults pay no income tax.

The proportion has risen sharply during the past decade. As recently as the 2007-08 tax year, according to the IFS, only 34.3 per cent of British adults paid no tax.

The position will worsen as the threshold rises over the next few years.

And the implications?

The implications of Mr Osborne’s deliberate hollowing out of the tax base will have severe consequences for both society and the economy. Getting on for half the adult population are now exempt from and unaffected by the single most effective tool used by the government to raise money. Getting on for half the population, then, in theory have no interest in voting for politicians promising to cut income tax because they don’t pay it; who, presumably, have no problem with politicians raising income tax rates because they don’t pay it themselves; and who, presumably, are uninterested in the cost of providing public services but only in what those services deliver.

And thus, paradoxically, George Osborne is paving the way for a Labour victory in future years.

Maybe.

   

Irresponsible research

There are examples of good research and there are examples of bad research.  This is a good one, as reported in The Independent:

Having a glass of wine with your dinner could lead to better mental and physical health and higher self-esteem.

Contrary to UK Government advice suggesting keeping several days ‘alcohol free’, a new study from researchers in Finland, published in the Alcohol and Alcoholism journal, found several glasses of wine per day with an evening meal could actually be good for you.

Researchers from the universities of Helsinki and Tampere studied the drinking habits of almost 2,600 people between 18 and 69, and found that 12 per cent of people who had a glass of wine or two with dinner were the most likely to have good physical and mental health, and rate their self-esteem as ‘high’.

My self-esteem has never been higher.