Brexit - what if?

The Independent indulges itself in some rather wild speculation on the outcome of a vote in favour of Brexit:

Nicola Sturgeon has made no secret of her desire for another referendum should Britain choose to leave the EU. She has already argued, rightly, that the last independence referendum in Scotland was based on a background of Britain remaining a part of the EU. 

With the backdrop changed so dramatically, based largely on English votes, the calls for another independence vote will be deafening. And this time the Scottish Nationalists know they will win. 

Given a choice between leaping into the unknown handcuffed to England and remaining as part of a stable (if risky) European Union, Scots will take their chances with Europe. More than just avoiding a leap into the unknown, remaining as part of the EU while England leaves represents a once-in-a-lifetime economic opportunity for Scotland. 

Every business that might consider leaving England for mainland Europe following a Brexit might instead consider moving to Scotland. Scotland will probably adopt the Euro as currency, is more conveniently situated for mainland Europe than Ireland and has a highly advanced renewable energy sector. 

The numbers don’t even need to be huge for Scotland to emerge as a big economic winner. If 5 per cent of American companies in the UK moved their European HQ north it would be a major economic windfall for the country. 

Plenty of Brexit campaigners want Britain to remain whole; they argue that Scotland wouldn’t become an automatic member of the EU and may not achieve favorable membership terms. But alternatively – and just as likely – the EU desperately, wanting to stick it to England, might fast track Scottish membership, granting the country very favorable terms indeed. Independence is tantalisingly within reach; Sturgeon must be willing the English to do their part.

Aye, well.  There are several unprovable assumptions underlying such an argument.  First, that Scotland votes Remain, while England votes Leave; neither of these propositions may turn out to be valid.  Secondly, that such a situation would necessarily lead to another IndyRef and that Scotland would vote for independence; again, neither of these may prove to be the case.  And thirdly, that - even if Scotland were to adopt the euro - the EU would be prepared to do Scotland any favours in order to stick it to England.

It all might just happen, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Music of the week

Do we hate the Chinese that much?

Oh dear!  Sino-Scottish relations are being set back to the levels of the Cold War.  The Times reports:

It has been the favourite tipple of Glaswegians for more than a century. Now Tennent’s lager is poised to be the toast of Beijing.

The Clydeside brewery has struck a deal to distribute drinks in China as it seeks to capitalise on a growing thirst for beer in the world’s second-largest economy. Sales were given a boost in November when David Cameron and President Xi were pictured enjoying a pint of Greene King IPA in an English pub.

Annual consumption of beer in China is forecast to reach about 61 billion litres this year, almost 60 litres per person. C&C, the Dublin drinks group that owns Tennent’s, has agreed a distribution deal with Vandergeeten, a long-established importer of beer into China, which has a portfolio including Leffe, Hoegaarden and Boddingtons.

It's for your own good?

Does anybody want more ads on the telly?  The European Commission appears to think so.  The Times reports:

Broadcasters should be allowed to place more adverts into prime time television and make more liberal use of product placement, the European Commission said yesterday.

Rules on programme sponsorship should also be relaxed, the commission said, as it unveiled proposals aimed at updating the law in the age of Netflix and other on-demand video services.

Under European law, commercial broadcasters are limited to a maximum of 12 minutes of advertising per hour. The commission wants to remove this cap and allow adverts to form up to 20 per cent of output from 7am to 11pm.

Films made for television, cinematographic works and news “could be interrupted more often”, the commission said in a proposal document.

The plans for loosening restrictions on product placement and sponsorship were welcomed by ITV, which said that they would “help to ensure the continued investment in original content”.

A spokesman added: “What is important to us, when it comes to television advertising minutage, is striking the right balance, ensuring that our viewers are not exposed to excessive amounts of advertising and that the quality of their experience is maintained.”

If the ITV spokesman were honest, he would admit that they don't give a toss about the viewers; they only want to maximise their revenue.  ITV should remember that, in certain circumstances, more means less ...

   

Heartless?

More here.

 

Yeurrgh!

Smile of the day

Here

 

Happy Birthday ...

... to Bob Dylan, 75 today.

Don't that make you feel old?

 

Quote of the day

The Guardian gets a little bit carried away in reporting the Dave and George anti-Brexit roadshow:

Halfway through their hit song With or Without EU, Dave Bono gestured towards George the Edge instructing him to turn the volume down. Moments later, when a reverent silence filled the room, Dave Bono started a meaningful slow hand clap. One by one, the hand-picked audience of employees who fancied an hour off work joined in this rhythmic communion.

“Hello Southampton,” Dave Bono drawled. “Every time I clap my hand another person in the UK loses their job. Think about it.” George the Edge peeled off a power chord and the band went straight back into the chorus. “With or without EU …” The audience all yelled: “With.”

The atrium of the B&Q headquarters on England’s south coast was not the most likely venue for the latest gig in EU2’s Rolling Thunder Bankruptcy Referendum tour, but it served a purpose. If only as the punchy bass line for the gag “Leaving the EU will bring on a DIY recession”, which was repeated far more times than was strictly necessary. Subtlety has never been EU2’s strong point. EU2 did not get where they are today by overestimating the intelligence of their fans – though it’s quite possible they did get where they are today by overestimating quite a few other things.

 
   

Miserable git

Well, what else would you call a guy earning a six figure salary who buys his wife a clapped-out Nissan Micra as a "run-around"?  The BBC reports:

Prime Minister David Cameron has bought a £1,500 used car as a "cheap run-around" for his wife, according to the salesman he bought it from.

Showroom owner Iain Harris, 44, said he thought a call from the PM's security team saying he was interested in the compact car was a "wind-up".

Mr Cameron paid £1,495 for the Nissan Micra in Minster Lovell, Oxfordshire, on Friday.

   

Propaganda

Actually, Turkey is very far from fulfilling the complex requirements for admission to the EU.  Even if it were to join the EU, as with previous entrants, there would be lengthy transitional arrangements barring free movement of Turkish nationals into existing member states.

 

Music of the week

   

Dinosaurs

Rubbing salt in the wound?  The Guardian reports:

The veteran golf commentator Peter Alliss has suggested that women who want to play at Muirfield should marry a member.

The 85-year-old former Ryder Cup player was reacting to a vote on accepting women into the club, that narrowly failed to achieve the two-thirds majority required to bring about change. Muirfield has staged the Open Championship 16 times, most recently in 2013, but it has been taken off the Open rota as a result of women being denied permission to join.

Alliss, one of the most distinctive voices in golf, told BBC Radio 5 Live: “The women who are there as wives of husbands, they get all the facilities. If somebody wants to join, well you’d better get married to somebody who’s a member."

Silly old buffer ...

You have to feel sorry for her

What?  Oh, the Gracious Speech.  The Guardian sets the scene:

The Queen winced. The crown seemed to get heavier every year and her knees were playing up, despite having used the lift in the House of Lords for the first time. As she waited for the members of the House of Commons to turn up, she couldn’t help but notice that a large number of peeresses were sporting Donald Trump haircuts. It wasn’t a good look, even with a diamond tiara. Someone should have a quiet word. At least there were a few familiar faces. It was always good to catch up with the Maltravers Herald Extraordinary and the Rouge Croix Pursuivant.

Rowdy chatter from the far end of the chamber signalled the arrival of the MPs. Some of them had no manners. “My government will continue to...,” she began. A moment’s panic crossed her face. Had someone given her a copy of last year’s Queen’s speech? She could clearly remember announcing the northern powerhouse, a bill of rights and the anti-extremism bill and a number of other bits also felt worryingly familiar. Never mind. Every job had its downsides. The state opening of parliament just happened to be hers.

“Prince Philip and I look forward to the visit of the president of Colombia,” she continued. “Speak for yourself, Liz,” the Duke of Edinburgh muttered under his breath. The Queen was well practised in ignoring her husband’s interventions and pressed on. Something about buses and a space port. Flybe flight 253 from Newquay to Mars will be boarding at gate two. Who wrote this bollocks, as Emily Thornberry would no doubt say? Ah well, nearly there. “Other measures will be laid before you. My lords and members of the House of Commons, I pray that the blessing of Almighty God may rest upon your counsels.” she concluded. Some hope.

   

A vision of hell

Fake bomb at Old Trafford

Interesting that neither The Guardian nor The Times is prepared to name the so-called "private company" that failed to take away the fake bomb in the toilets at Old Trafford after a "training exercise" earlier in the week, causing the evacuation of the stadium and the postponement of the match.  Nor is the BBC.

Why not?

   

Silly Boris

The Independent is less than impressed by Boris comparing the EU with Hitler:

Contemplating the latest droplet of Hitlerian idiocy, this one from Boris Johnson’s noble brow, all manner of laws, acronyms and Latin phrases come to mind.

Whenever anyone makes reference to the Fuhrer, you think of Godwin’s Law, which effectively states that the longer any debate (specifically on the internet) continues, the closer to 100 per cent grows the likelihood that Adolf will be cited.

Other reference points include HDS (Hitler Derangement Syndrome); “reductio ad Hitlerum”; PLMHF (Post-London Mayoral Hitler Fixation; see Kenneth Livingstone); and the general rule of thumb that regardless of the subject – EU membership, fracking, how to grow cherry tomatoes in an east-facing garden – an argument is lost the instant someone brings you-know-who out of the closet.

All the above may apply to Boris’s comparison between Hitler’s dream of rediscovering “the golden age of peace and prosperity under the Romans” with the EU’s attempt “to do this by different methods.” But the acronym of choice is DBS. 

Don’t. Be. Silly.

Splendid!

   

Pass the sickbag, Alice

 

Music of the week

Feeling belligerent?