I see that the Alexander siblings have decided that
a referendum on independence might after all be a Good Thing. Wendy is even prepared for the test of a simple yea or nay to independence, thus forswearing the triple option referendum of independence, status quo or enhanced devolution (which - if you believe the polls - would have reduced the level of support for independence). And she wants it to happen as soon as possible -or at least well before 2010, which is where the SNP administration's plans are leading.
But, assuming that Mr Salmond were to resist Ms Alexander's (rather vulgar) invitation to 'bring it on' and sticks to his planned timetable, what could Ms Alexander do about it? She would either have to bring forward her own bill for a consultative referendum to the Scottish Parliament or rely on her London colleagues to bring forward a similar bill to the Westminster Parliament (or more likely to include similar provision in the forthcoming constitutional bill). The latter course of action pre-supposes that the Prime Minister supports her latest change of heart (or emphasis), a proposition which may - or may not - prove to be the case. But let us place that question to one side, as the choice of legislature does not -I suggest - invalidate the following thesis.
To state the obvious, we are now in May 2008. Even if Ms Alexander, like Marvo the Magician, had a bill up her capacious sleeve which, with a drumroll and an expansive flourish, she could instantly lay before the tribunes of the Scottish electorate, there is no possible prospect of securing the passage of such a bill during the current (2007-08) parliamentary session. The mill-wheels of the Scottish Parliament grind slowly, with a bit of consultation here and a referral to committee there, debates on principle first and on detailed proposed amendments to follow. And, anyway, the likelihood that Ms Alexander has a bill up her sleeve is improbable, to say the least.
But (and it is a big but), if she gets her skates on, she could in theory have a bill ready for the start of the 2008-09 parliamentary session in the autumn of this year. (I am nevertheless obliged to point out that it is difficult for opposition parties to draft a bill, as the legal expertise lies with the official authorities under the control of the administration; but let us not be too pessimistic.) If such a bill were introduced later this year, then theoretically it could complete its parliamentary process and become an Act sometime in mid-2009, thus facilitating the holding of a referendum in the autumn of 2009 or, more likely, the spring of the following year.
The more astute of you will have noticed that we have already arrived at 2010. This is not so surprising. If I were the First Minister and I wanted to hold a referendum in 2010, then I would be planning for the bill to underpin such a referendum to go through the parliamentary process in 2008-09. To leave it any later would be risky in the extreme, especially in the light of the Scottish general election in 2011 and the increasingly distinct possibility of a UK general election in 2010. (Unless of course Mr Salmond did not expect to carry the bill, in which case the timing would be less crucial - but now that the concept of a referendum has attracted the support of the Alexanders the omens are becoming more propitious.)
So what is Ms Alexander playing at in demanding that Mr Salmond 'bring it on'? 'It' will be 'brought on' as soon as it can and, in any case, sooner than many of us would like.
I leave my readers to judge whether Wendy is being extremely clever or has simply not thought the position through.