Sorting it out

Whither Brexit now?  The Sunday Times has a useful summary:

It is important, however, to distinguish between two types of exit without a deal, as Oxford Economics does in a useful new report.

The first is a “cliff-edge” Brexit in March 2019, when the two sides cannot agree even on withdrawal arrangements and the UK “walks away”. This is the one in which the planes may not fly, huge queues build up on either side of the Channel, there is crisis-type financial chaos and industrial disruption and shortages of medicines and some foods. Oxford puts a 15% probability on this, on which the EU issued warnings last week.

It puts a larger probability, just over 30%, on the UK leaving on WTO (World Trade Organisation) terms at the end of 2020. This is not, it should be stressed, how we trade with most of the rest of the world, as we would soon discover. It would also be disruptive and economically costly, though with more time to adjust to this new era.

Oxford’s other probabilities are 24% for a free trade agreement, a mix of the Canada-type deal suggested by the EU and the Chequers agreement; 31% for “Bino”, Brexit in name only, in which things carry on as now, though with the UK as a rule-taker; and 15% for Brexit not happening at all.

What a mess ...