What do the figures mean?

I commented earlier this week on the difficulties in using official figures to assess the level of economic growth. Now The Herald suggests that the trade figures may not be wholly reliable:

"THE UK's global goods trade deficit narrowed sharply and unexpectedly in June, as exports hit a record, National Statistics said yesterday. However, economists warned swiftly against reading much into the trade figures after National Statistics said the balance with non-European Union countries may have been distorted by tax fraud. The UK's global goods trade deficit dropped from £4.98bn in May to £4.28bn in June. The City expected £4.9bn.The UK deficit in goods trade with countries outside the EU plunged from £2.28bn in May to £1.44bn in June – much less than the forecast £2.3bn. Lucy O'Carroll, director of research at HBOS's treasury services division and a former senior economist at the Bank of England, said she would be "so cautious" about trying to interpret the trade numbers in any way given National Statistics' comments about possible distortion from tax fraud.She said: "The surveys don't accord with the big positive increases in exports you have seen in these numbers. Take it (the trade numbers) with huge health warnings, obviously."

Being an economist must be difficult - every time you look at the raw figures, the data just slip away.