Despite yesterday's speech by the PM (workhouses for teenage mums? more Asbos? WTF planet is he on?), if I were David Cameron, I'd be slightly worried.
1. The latest polls put the Tories in the high 30s rather than the comfortable 40s. They need the latter in order to be assured of an overall majority.
2. If Ireland votes yes on Friday (which seems increasingly likely), Lisbon ratification could be wrapped up by the end of October. Then where will the Tories go with their promise 'not to let matters rest'? And can they take their party with them?
3. Wee Georgie-Porgie is not really cutting the mustard when it comes to the economics thingy. On every economics issue, the wallpaper king seems to put the Tories on the wrong side (and the City is whispering about his lack of interest in his brief).
4. There remains a whiff of something unsavoury with regard to the Tories, from duck houses and moats to their links with lobbyists and their continuing dalliance with rich businessmen. A couple of scandals and who knows?
5. Lord Mandelson may be reduced to doing pantomime turns at party conferences, but he's no mug and not to be under-estimated. If the Tories have weaknesses, Lord Peter will have found them.
Or maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part ...