Simple arithmetic

Is it not surprising how politicians, civil servants and journalists struggle to deal with sums? Here is the BBC website:

"Home Secretary John Reid has told MPs he will clear the backlog of failed asylum seekers within five years.
It follows claims ministers greatly underestimated the number of failed asylum seekers living in Britain.
Last year the National Audit Office estimated that the figure could be as much as 283,000 - but at the time the Home Office insisted that was too high.
Now a trawl of files in the Immigration and Nationality department has produced between 400,000 and 450,000 case files."

Let us assume that there is a backlog of 400,000 failed asylum seekers out there. (I appreciate that the following calculations ignore the fact that this sum will inevitably be added to in future, as more asylum seekers go missing - but let us keep it simple.) In order to remove this backlog, the Immigration and Nationality Department (IND) will need to dispose of (either by deporting or by legitimising) an average of 80,000 cases per year or more than 219 per day (assuming that IND works 365 days a year). Is this feasible?

Again, leave aside the fact that IND has never in the past achieved anything like this throughput. The answer to the basic question depends upon a number of factors. The IND first has to find the individuals concerned, and it then has to secure a formal decision from the Home Office on whether to deport, given of course that the individual has a right of appeal. Assuming deportation is approved, and keeping hold of the asylum seeker in the meantime, it then has to arrange for the physical deportation of the individual, bearing in mind that certain states will not accept those who have fled, that it is not always clear which state asylum seekers are from, and that deportation may not take place if the individual faces execution or torture. All of this will require substantial amounts of paperwork in each of the 200+ cases to be processed and completed every day.

But if Dr Reid says it can be done, who am I to say that he has not even begun to consider the practicalities?


Addendum

At the same time there will be some administrative changes, according to the BBC (here):

- 15 Home Office directors to be changed and new "top team" set up
- Size of Home Office HQ to be cut by 2,700 staff by 2008, with another 600 posts going by 2010
- Immigration and Nationality Directorate to become "arms length" agency