Boiled eggs and electoral strategy

Picture the scene in the breakfast room at Bute House this morning. As the First Minister slices off the top of his boiled egg, he must be wondering about his strategy for next May's elections. Should he have committed himself so blatantly to defending the union and setting his face against further constitutional change? Because the strategy does not appear to be working. As he pours himself another cup of coffee, Mr McConnell will be contemplating the latest opinion poll in The Scotsman (here):

"ALEX Salmond received a massive pre-election boost today with a new opinion poll showing a clear majority of Scots favour independence, and illustrating a significant swing from Labour to the SNP.
The Scotsman ICM poll found 51 per cent now favoured full independence with only 39 per cent against - the biggest level of support for separatism for eight years.
The poll also forecasts major gains for the SNP at next year's Holyrood elections with the party on course to win enough seats to form Britain's first nationalist-led government."

And the big question for the First Minister is what he does next. Does he stay the course, sticking to the line agreed with Gordon Brown, hoping that the Scottish electorate will come to its senses and take a step back from the constitutional abyss? Or does he cut and run, seizing the saltire and adding a little devolutionary populism to the mix?