Snapshots from the future

Mr McConnell's increasingly desperate attempts to form a minority Holyrood administration finally hit the buffers yesterday when the parliament rejected his candidacy for First Minister by 75 votes to 51. The SNP, LibDems and Greens outvoted Labour and the Tories. Mr McConnell is expected to announce his resignation as Scottish labour leader later today. Iain Gray, who has the backing of Prime Minister Gordon Brown, is the favourite to replace Mr McConnell as labour leader in Scotland. The way is now clear for an SNP-Libdem administration to be formed.
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Earlier this year, the Scottish parliamentary authorities ruled that First Minister Salmond's bill for an independence referendum was ultra vires, a decision which has now been upheld by the Court of Session. Accordingly, the SNP-controlled Executive yesterday announced that it would ask the Westminster parliament to bring forward such a bill. Despite the increasing support in Scotland for such a referendum, Prime Minister Gordon Brown is bitterly opposed to independence and is expected to rule out any such bill before the next general election, taking the country into uncharted constitutional waters.
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Labour's decision to deny the Scots a referendum on independence is expected to cost Gordon Brown dearly in tomorrow's UK general election, with Labour expected to lose up to 30 seats in Scotland alone. The polls suggest that the best Labour can hope for is a hung parliament; the Conservatives seem certain to be the largest party. The likely presence of 40 newly-elected SNP MPs will keep up the pressure for independence. David Cameron has already announced his willingness to do a deal on the matter.
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Now that Scotland has voted in favour of independence, First Minister Salmond and Prime Minister Cameron are expected to get down to negotiations on the mechanics of separation. Mr Cameron welcomed Mr Salmond's recognition that independence could not happen overnight. The present constitutional arrangements are likely to carry on for at least three years, while the separate administrations discuss the partition of government assets in Scotland which were previously the property of the United Kingdom. A referendum on the adoption of the euro would not be held until after the next Scottish general election. On foreign affairs, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office will continue to represent the Scottish administration abroad for the foreseeable future. On defence, the Trident submarines will next year be moved to Devonport. It is understood that the Scottish administration is content for the Ministry of Defence to continue in control of the military, provided suitable financial arrangements can be worked out.
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Scottish Social Security Minister, Kenny MacAskill MSP, admitted yesterday that the Scottish administration had seriously under-estimated the scale and complexity of the work required to introduce a separate social security system. It was now proposed to defer the suggested improvements to the system and to import the present UK system unchanged. Any further changes would have to wait until things had settled down.
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The European Court of Justice ruled yesterday that the dissolution of the United Kingdom would result in the creation of two new entities and that the government of England, Wales and Northern Ireland was not therefore entitled to inherit the membership previously held by the United Kingdom. The European Commission announced its intention to open negotiations with both parts of the former United Kingdom with a view to early entry into the European Union. It is believed that the United Nations is likely to take a similar view, so that permanent membership of the Security Council and the right of veto will be lost.