Re-cycling the opinion polls

It must be confusing if you are a Green candidate in the parliamentary elections. Having finished your (organic) boiled egg this morning, you turn to The Sunday Times where the polls confidently predict that your party will only secure two seats. Despondency sets in.

But then your attention is drawn to The Mail on Sunday poll. Joy, oh joy: they are predicting - equally confidently - that the Greens will secure eleven seats.

What to make of this? I suspect that the polls are utterly hopeless at predicting how the smaller parties will fare a week on Thursday. And, if they can't predict the little parties, can they be trusted with the larger parties? Only up to a point...

All to play for, lads and lasses.

A fit of the vapours

Poor old Angus Macleod of The Times reads the runes of the latest poll:

The Nationalist surge in Scotland is faltering, although the SNP still leads Labour with less than two weeks to go in the election campaign, according to a new opinion poll.
The exclusive Populus poll for The Times also shows a significant upswing of support for the Liberal Democrats, reinforcing their position as key players in Scotland’s next ruling coalition after May 3.
If the Lib Dems maintain their progress right up to polling day, it even raises the possibility that what is Scotland’s third-largest party would be able to demand — if they failed to strike a deal with the SNP — that Nicol Stephen, their leader north of the Border, becomes First Minister as the price of another coalition with Labour.

Or maybe it's just another dodgy poll? Either way, there's no need to frighten the horses by suggesting that Nicol Stephen might become First Minister. For the record, here are the numbers:

Translated into seats at Holyrood, the Nationalists would be the largest party with 46 seats in the 129-seat Parliament in Edinburgh, down 4 from the same poll last month but 19 more than they won in 2003. Labour would have 42 seats, one fewer than last month but down eight on 2003. The Lib Dems would have 23 MSPs, five more than last month’s Populus poll suggested and six more than in 2003. The Conservatives would have 17, the same as last month but one fewer than they won in 2003.

Now that does not seems to me to provide a justification for old Angus's apocalyptic outpourings.