There is no shortage of problems beginning to pile up and these are likely to require decisions sooner rather than later.
First up, we have the problem of the Edinburgh trams which the SNP is apparently committed to abandoning. Does the incoming administration follow up that pledge, despite the overwhelming support for the trams demonstrated by the Edinburgh electorate? How does that look in the new context of a flexible, consensus-building administration, especially when your Green 'partners' are keen on the trams? But the administration is in desperate need of the resources that would be freed up by cancelling the trams.
Second, there is Monklands A & E where the SNP is committed to reversing the decision of the previous administration's to close the facility. But there are implications for other hospitals in Lanarkshire and - again - resource considerations to take into account.
Third, there is the replacement of the Forth Road Bridge. According to The Scotsman (here), there may already be a three year gap between the de-commissioning of the existing bridge and the availability of the new one. The latest engineering reports are due shortly and early decisions (eg on the line of the bridge and on whether to use PFI) will be required on what will perhaps be the biggest procurement project in Scotland for donkeys' years.
Then there is the private prison proposed for the Low Moss site. The SNP is against more private prisons in the prisons estate but can it afford to proceed down the traditional public procurement route?
All difficult decisions, made more difficult by the likely minority position of the administration. A harsh lesson for the SNP in the brutal realities of decision-making, assuming of course that they become the new administration.
And what's that clucking sound? Could it be the sound of chickens coming home to roost?
Showing posts with label 2007 elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2007 elections. Show all posts
11 May 2007
10 May 2007
In denial?
I am tempted to wonder if this guy is for real. Here is Lord Gould, the PM's polling expert, explaining in The New Statesman how Labour nearly won the Scottish election campaign:
If this campaign was Labour "at its best", then I would hate to see them at their worst. A campaign that was desperately slow to get off the ground, a campaign that constantly swithered between the politics of fear and Mr McConnell's defence of his record, a campaign where the London and Scottish leaderships were and remained at odds, a campaign where the Labour party HQ was out-thought and out-manoeuvred by its SNP equivalent. But never mind, it will be better next time - Lord Gould says so.
This was a campaign that showed Labour at its best: Tony Blair magnificent, leading from the front, finding exactly the right words, always able to change the political weather. Gordon Brown like a tank, indomitable, raging against the possibility of defeat, generating ideas and implementing them with an energy that was breathtaking. Douglas Alexander, pathologically determined to win, displaying that infuriating determination of purpose that is the mark of great campaigners. And Jack McConnell, so often criticised, but who never showed the slightest loss of nerve, in the end finding a street-fighting demeanour that made Salmond's helicopter tours look arrogant and presumptuous.
There were many besides and all were, in their own way, heroic, brought together by that extraordinary glue that new Labour campaigning has at its core: a courage that will not allow for the possibility of defeat. Whatever else can be said of Blair and Brown, they do not lack guts. No news, however bad, unnerves them. Even after it was announced that we had lost, they still believed something could be done...
From now on Labour will strengthen, and the Tories inexorably weaken. Last week was a turning point, for Labour not David Cameron. Not a bad legacy for Blair and Brown's last campaign.
If this campaign was Labour "at its best", then I would hate to see them at their worst. A campaign that was desperately slow to get off the ground, a campaign that constantly swithered between the politics of fear and Mr McConnell's defence of his record, a campaign where the London and Scottish leaderships were and remained at odds, a campaign where the Labour party HQ was out-thought and out-manoeuvred by its SNP equivalent. But never mind, it will be better next time - Lord Gould says so.
09 May 2007
Tick... tick... tick...
... goes the clock. Time flies when you're having fun or when you are operating under a deadline of 30 days.
Today's first meeting of the Scottish parliament is to be adjourned until 3 pm on Monday 14 May. That's 11 days since the day of the election, more than a third of the time available to select a First Minister. And there is still no sign of a formal nomination motion.
Today's first meeting of the Scottish parliament is to be adjourned until 3 pm on Monday 14 May. That's 11 days since the day of the election, more than a third of the time available to select a First Minister. And there is still no sign of a formal nomination motion.
08 May 2007
Playing fast and loose
This may be politically convenient but it is legally untenable. This is the Parliament's press release:
Utter nonsense. They should not bend the law for political convenience. Not a good start for the new parliament.
The Scottish Parliament’s Presiding Officer George Reid has today announced that the election of his successor and the new Deputy Presiding Officers will take place next week. The oath and affirmation taking by MSPs will go ahead tomorrow at 9.30am as scheduled.
At the end of the morning session, a motion will be put to Parliament proposing that the first meeting of Parliament is adjourned until 3pm on Monday 14 May, at which point it will reconvene to elect the new Presiding Officers.
...In accordance with The Scotland Act 1998, Parliament must meet within seven days of an election. At the first meeting of Parliament a Presiding Officer must be elected. This deadline does not include weekends or public holidays. Therefore, the date on which Parliament has to have met for the first time is Tuesday 15 May 2007.
A bureau motion will be put before Parliament to suspend standing orders so that the Parliament can meet, and continue the first meeting on Monday 14 May.
Utter nonsense. They should not bend the law for political convenience. Not a good start for the new parliament.
Is Mr Salmond in trouble?
Well, you might think so if you read the following in today's press:
It is certainly true that the election did not deliver to Mr Salmond a hand of cards which would enable him to crush his opponents. But, from the moment his helicopter landed at Prestonfield last Friday, he has played that hand of cards beautifully. He has wooed (however unsuccessfully) the LibDems and the Greens; he has been willing to talk without preconditions; he has emphasised the primacy of a 'progressive consensus' (whatever that means); and, like a rash, he has been all over the media, displaying reasonableness as if it were going out of fashion. Of all Scotland's politicians, Mr Salmond has been head and shoulders above the rest when it has come to attempting to sort out the horlicks left by the election.
Meanwhile, like some Achilles of yore, Mr McConnell sits sulking in his tent, while his Labour Party acolytes consider their legal options for bringing down chaos on whatever kind of administration could be patched up. And Mr Stephen plays Greta Garbo, wanting to be alone. What is either of them contributing to the common weal, in this time of crisis?
And, if Mr Salmond ultimately fails in what appear to be his valiant efforts to construct some kind of administration, and this results in another general election, who will get the blame? I rather doubt if it will be the SNP. Which, in turn, will make it increasingly difficult for the other parties to obstruct his efforts. At the moment, it's a win-win situation for the SNP: either they succeed in establishing a minority administration or they fail but get the credit for trying.
Mr Salmond is proving to be rather more clever than I gave him credit for.
ALEX Salmond admitted yesterday that he would have to alter his plans for the first 100 days of a Nationalist government if the SNP was forced to operate as a minority government. [Source]
Alex Salmond faces the prospect of governing precariously unable to implement his party's only distinctive idea. [Source]
Alex Salmond conceded last night that his attempts to build a coalition to run Scotland had failed and that his party was headed for minority government. His comments came after a day of setbacks for the Scottish National Party. [Source]
It is certainly true that the election did not deliver to Mr Salmond a hand of cards which would enable him to crush his opponents. But, from the moment his helicopter landed at Prestonfield last Friday, he has played that hand of cards beautifully. He has wooed (however unsuccessfully) the LibDems and the Greens; he has been willing to talk without preconditions; he has emphasised the primacy of a 'progressive consensus' (whatever that means); and, like a rash, he has been all over the media, displaying reasonableness as if it were going out of fashion. Of all Scotland's politicians, Mr Salmond has been head and shoulders above the rest when it has come to attempting to sort out the horlicks left by the election.
Meanwhile, like some Achilles of yore, Mr McConnell sits sulking in his tent, while his Labour Party acolytes consider their legal options for bringing down chaos on whatever kind of administration could be patched up. And Mr Stephen plays Greta Garbo, wanting to be alone. What is either of them contributing to the common weal, in this time of crisis?
And, if Mr Salmond ultimately fails in what appear to be his valiant efforts to construct some kind of administration, and this results in another general election, who will get the blame? I rather doubt if it will be the SNP. Which, in turn, will make it increasingly difficult for the other parties to obstruct his efforts. At the moment, it's a win-win situation for the SNP: either they succeed in establishing a minority administration or they fail but get the credit for trying.
Mr Salmond is proving to be rather more clever than I gave him credit for.
07 May 2007
Pot and kettles
This seems a bit unfair - or maybe it's a spoof. Bruce Anderson - a bit of a bampot himself - unleashes a stream of vituperation in The Independent:
Labour forgot that its bedrock includes a lot of the thickest people in these islands. There is no point in presenting them with a voting-paper which looks as if it had escaped from a speech written for Gordon Brown by Ed Balls on endogenous neo-classical growth theory.Now look, they may be numpties but they're our numpties. And we really do not need 'metropolitan' correspondents to dwell on the matter.
Over the past couple of days, everyone in the Scottish Labour Party has been trying to blame everyone else for the cock-up. It was the Scottish Executive, claims Alistair Darling. No, it is the Scottish Office, says the Executive. There is one reason for believing that the blame lies in London. The Scottish Labour party is still full of glottal stops, who should feel empathy with their fellow thickos and understand their limitations.
Not that this would necessarily appease the voters. The demotic speech of the Scottish Lowlands is often pithy, eloquent and brutal. Many words exist to describe useless persons, including bampot, numpty and shilpit wee nyaff. A partial onomatopoeia will guide readers to the meanings, none of which are [sic] complimentary and all of which describe the Scottish Labour benches in the Holyrood Parliament. Labour has lost control of Scotland, because it deserved to lose. The calibre of the Labour Party in Scotland is an insult to the Scottish people.
So where are we now?
Well, the prospect of tense negotiations in smokefree - but still fetid - rooms seems to have receded somewhat. The LibDems' stated position, like that of the Tories, is that they are not prepared to coalesce with either the SNP or Labour (unless the SNP is prepared to abandon an independence referendum completely and utterly - which seems improbable).
Mr Salmond, with his 47 votes + 2 Greens, could still become First Minister, but it would require a peculiar set of circumstances to bring it about. On the assumption that Labour would vote against him, Mr Salmond would require both the Tories and the LibDems to sit on their hands and abstain on the vote for his nomination. As far as I am aware, neither of these two parties has committed itself to voting against Mr Salmond's nomination, so it remains a possibility. What price would they ask for that abstention, I wonder?
Mr McConnell, on the other hand, would require the active support of either the Tories or the LibDems and the abstention of the other in order to gain the prize. Again, it remains a (remote) possibility, but in the absence of a formal deal I can't see either party offering active support.
Even if either Mr Salmond or Mr McConnell were somehow to secure the nomination for First Minister, the parliamentary arithmetic would be extremely unstable. Would there be any hope of Parliament agreeing a legislative programme? Well, yes, possibly, but each individual item of legislation would require to be the subject of separate four-way horse-trading. But what would be the point of having an Executive that was only ever able to pursue legislation that was uncontroversial?
IMHO, the likeliest prospect is that the Parliament will fail to nominate a First Minister within the 28 day period. So we are in for another general election.
Mr Salmond, with his 47 votes + 2 Greens, could still become First Minister, but it would require a peculiar set of circumstances to bring it about. On the assumption that Labour would vote against him, Mr Salmond would require both the Tories and the LibDems to sit on their hands and abstain on the vote for his nomination. As far as I am aware, neither of these two parties has committed itself to voting against Mr Salmond's nomination, so it remains a possibility. What price would they ask for that abstention, I wonder?
Mr McConnell, on the other hand, would require the active support of either the Tories or the LibDems and the abstention of the other in order to gain the prize. Again, it remains a (remote) possibility, but in the absence of a formal deal I can't see either party offering active support.
Even if either Mr Salmond or Mr McConnell were somehow to secure the nomination for First Minister, the parliamentary arithmetic would be extremely unstable. Would there be any hope of Parliament agreeing a legislative programme? Well, yes, possibly, but each individual item of legislation would require to be the subject of separate four-way horse-trading. But what would be the point of having an Executive that was only ever able to pursue legislation that was uncontroversial?
IMHO, the likeliest prospect is that the Parliament will fail to nominate a First Minister within the 28 day period. So we are in for another general election.
06 May 2007
The start of the fun and games
Don't believe anything until it has been officially denied. Such as this story from the BBC:
Oh aye? Or am I becoming cynical in my old age? Why would you rule out a negotiating lever before the negotiations have started?
The Liberal Democrats have ruled out a coalition deal with Labour in the Scottish Parliament.
The Lib Dems' Tavish Scott told BBC Scotland that if his party was not able to share power with the SNP, it would be on the backbenches.
Oh aye? Or am I becoming cynical in my old age? Why would you rule out a negotiating lever before the negotiations have started?
What happens now?
The new parliament will meet for the first time on Wednesday 9 May. The morning, from 9.30 am onwards, will be given over to oath-taking (which does not mean swearing about the election results).
The afternoon (from 2.30 pm) will be devoted to the election of a Presiding Officer and two deputies. The previous Presiding Officer, George Reid, will be in charge of proceedings, at least until the new Presiding Officer is elected. Nominations for the three posts have to be submitted to the parliamentary authorities over lunch-time, from 12.15 pm to 2.15 pm. Details of the voting procedures are set out here.
The main interest is in who will be the new Presiding Officer as he or she is required to remain neutral, thus depriving one of the parties of an MSP vote. Given that every vote is crucial in the present circumstances, none of the parties will be rushing to submit a nomination. Some of the newspapers have suggested that Annabel Goldie might be in the running, but this has also been discounted. Robin Harper and even Jack McConnell have also been mentioned in despatches, but neither seems likely to give up the opportunity of playing a part in coalition-building (a matter which will certainly not be resolved by Wednesday).
So it should be quite interesting to see what happens. I am not even going to try a prediction.
Update:
J Arthur surveys the field of candidates here.
The afternoon (from 2.30 pm) will be devoted to the election of a Presiding Officer and two deputies. The previous Presiding Officer, George Reid, will be in charge of proceedings, at least until the new Presiding Officer is elected. Nominations for the three posts have to be submitted to the parliamentary authorities over lunch-time, from 12.15 pm to 2.15 pm. Details of the voting procedures are set out here.
The main interest is in who will be the new Presiding Officer as he or she is required to remain neutral, thus depriving one of the parties of an MSP vote. Given that every vote is crucial in the present circumstances, none of the parties will be rushing to submit a nomination. Some of the newspapers have suggested that Annabel Goldie might be in the running, but this has also been discounted. Robin Harper and even Jack McConnell have also been mentioned in despatches, but neither seems likely to give up the opportunity of playing a part in coalition-building (a matter which will certainly not be resolved by Wednesday).
So it should be quite interesting to see what happens. I am not even going to try a prediction.
Update:
J Arthur surveys the field of candidates here.
05 May 2007
What would you do?
I want you to imagine that you are Mr Nicol Stephen - not a pleasant thought, I know, but bear with me. Let us also assume, somewhat heroically, that you are not a ragingly opportunistic careerist, obsessed with Ministerial salaries and Mondeos. Rather, we will posit that you are essentially a decent bloke, concerned to do what is right for your country and your party (albeit not necessarily in that order) in both the short-term and the long-term.
You woke up this morning feeling a bit glum. Your election campaign was less than a triumph. The number of LibDem seats fell from 17 to 16. You came fourth, again. All that brave talk about becoming First Minister has fizzled out. You cannot even deliver a majority to either of the two major parties seeking to woo you into a coalition. Instead there is going to have to be a messy three way negotiation with the Greens.
On a proposed coalition with the SNP, you have (rather stupidly) talked yourself into a corner. Yes, I know it might have been even worse if you had indicated during the election that you were prepared to consider some form of independence referendum. But we are where we are. And you said that you would have nothing to do with such a referendum. If you now accede to Alex's blandishments and agree to support him, everybody will say that you have broken your word. None of your promises will ever be believed again. And Ming would be seriously upset.
Alternatively, if you were to choose to prop up Labour, you might have to abandon your policy on the reform of local government finance and on nuclear power, upsetting your own activists. And you would be seen as taking sides with the party that 'lost' the election - some might describe that as an undemocratic choice. And, anyway, you are fed up to the back teeth with Jack McConnell and his merry band of rogues and rascals. Furthermore, being in coalition with that lot over the past eight years has not exactly increased your electoral success rate.
And you know that, whatever is the outcome of the negotiations, the resulting administration is not going to be stable. Sooner rather than later (perhaps as early as this autumn), you may have to face the electorate once again. Playing footsie with either the SNP or Labour is unlikely to deliver electoral benefits for the LibDems.
So there you are. You can choose to support the SNP or to support Labour. Alternatively, and following the breakdown of the negotiations, you could announce that (i) you had done your best to reach a satisfactory resolution but that you were not prepared to compromise the principles upon which you had fought the election and (ii) that you and your party intended to go into opposition from where you would play a constructive role in the best interests of the country... etc, etc, etc.
As decisions go, it's a no-brainer, isn't it?
You woke up this morning feeling a bit glum. Your election campaign was less than a triumph. The number of LibDem seats fell from 17 to 16. You came fourth, again. All that brave talk about becoming First Minister has fizzled out. You cannot even deliver a majority to either of the two major parties seeking to woo you into a coalition. Instead there is going to have to be a messy three way negotiation with the Greens.
On a proposed coalition with the SNP, you have (rather stupidly) talked yourself into a corner. Yes, I know it might have been even worse if you had indicated during the election that you were prepared to consider some form of independence referendum. But we are where we are. And you said that you would have nothing to do with such a referendum. If you now accede to Alex's blandishments and agree to support him, everybody will say that you have broken your word. None of your promises will ever be believed again. And Ming would be seriously upset.
Alternatively, if you were to choose to prop up Labour, you might have to abandon your policy on the reform of local government finance and on nuclear power, upsetting your own activists. And you would be seen as taking sides with the party that 'lost' the election - some might describe that as an undemocratic choice. And, anyway, you are fed up to the back teeth with Jack McConnell and his merry band of rogues and rascals. Furthermore, being in coalition with that lot over the past eight years has not exactly increased your electoral success rate.
And you know that, whatever is the outcome of the negotiations, the resulting administration is not going to be stable. Sooner rather than later (perhaps as early as this autumn), you may have to face the electorate once again. Playing footsie with either the SNP or Labour is unlikely to deliver electoral benefits for the LibDems.
So there you are. You can choose to support the SNP or to support Labour. Alternatively, and following the breakdown of the negotiations, you could announce that (i) you had done your best to reach a satisfactory resolution but that you were not prepared to compromise the principles upon which you had fought the election and (ii) that you and your party intended to go into opposition from where you would play a constructive role in the best interests of the country... etc, etc, etc.
As decisions go, it's a no-brainer, isn't it?
The science of muddling through
Neither of the two most likely coalitions, SNP-LibDem and Labour-LibDem, can command a simple majority of the parliament. In these circumstances, Michael White in The Guardian introduces us to a new term for the process of a minority administration:
It sounds like a scientific term for muddling through. But, even if it were to be tried out, there remains the problem of those policy concessions. Will the SNP relinquish the concept of an independence referendum? Will the other parties accept the same concept - even if delayed to 2010 and weakened by addional questions on additional parliamentary powers? Will Labour relinquish the concepts of nuclear power and nuclear weapons? Or will the other parties accept some form of compromise on these issues? And is there a majority in parliament for any kind of reform (or retention) of local government finance?
So who's got the magic wand?
Whoever emerges as Edinburgh's first minister in the next 28 days (the rules stipulate a deadline - or fresh elections), Scots may also have to grapple with a halfway house between formal coalition and minority rule.
Known as "C & S" - a term borrowed from New Zealand (full of Scots) - it stands for "confidence and supply". What it means is that the Lib Dems and perhaps the Greens, or even Tories, will promise to support the ruling party on its budget and in any votes of confidence.
In return, they get some policy concessions. But they remain free to vote against any of the 50 or so bills that ministers propose each year. If it sounds like a recipe for instability, it is part of the price which PR aficionados believe worth paying for consensus.
It sounds like a scientific term for muddling through. But, even if it were to be tried out, there remains the problem of those policy concessions. Will the SNP relinquish the concept of an independence referendum? Will the other parties accept the same concept - even if delayed to 2010 and weakened by addional questions on additional parliamentary powers? Will Labour relinquish the concepts of nuclear power and nuclear weapons? Or will the other parties accept some form of compromise on these issues? And is there a majority in parliament for any kind of reform (or retention) of local government finance?
So who's got the magic wand?
04 May 2007
Not so much liveblogging as deadblogging
5.35 So that's it. The final result:
SNP 47
Lab 46
Con 17
LibDem 16
Greens 2
Margo 1
More thoughts tomorrow. Hey, but you can do the sums as well as I can. It's been fun. Have a good evening. As we used to say in Brussels, 'Bon Weekend'.
5.20 The North-East list delivers 2 seats each to SNP, Lab and Con with the last one going to the LibDems. We remain with 14 seats undecided. Lab and SNP each have 42 seats, LibDems 16 and Con 14, plus our solitary Green. It is now unlikely that any two parties (other than Lab and SNP together) could command a majority. We are therefore looking at a minority coalition, if not another election.
4.50 Libdems have held Edinburgh West, which leaves only the list votes for the Lothians, the North-East and the Highlands and islands. Results table is both Lab and SNP on 40, LibDems on 15, Con 12 and our solitary Green. Still awfully tight.
4.40 Big Malkie remains my MSP in Edinburgh North. The latest BBC results table shows that SNP now have 40 seats (+18), Lab 39 (-6), LibDems 14 (-2), Con 12 (NC), Greens 1. This reflects the West of Scotland list which allocated 4 seats to SNP, 2 to Con and 1 to the LibDems. This represent a gain of one for the SNP at the expense of the SSP.
3.40 Argyll and Bute goes SNP; LibDems cry in their beer. This is all getting very tight. We should now get the Highlands and Islands list vote soon. We're also waiting for my own constituency of Edinburgh North.
3.35 There's a disappointment for me. SNP gain Edinburgh East and the likeable Norman Murray goes west. Norman would have made a good MSP.
3.20 I'm just about hanging on here for the remaining Edinburgh results. The broadcast media have more or less abandoned me, I suspect on yesterday's assumption that it would all have been over by now. Alternatively, they're all just knackered after last night. I wonder what Messrs McConnell and Salmond are doing? Sleeping, probably.
3.10 Labour hold Aberdeen Central. With 39 seats, Labour creeps closer to becoming the largest party, now 5 ahead of the SNP.
2.45 The first of the remaining Edinburgh seats to declare is Edinburgh South which is a LibDem hold. Tough for Donald Anderson, former Labour leader of Edinburgh Council. Latest overall position: Lab 38 (-5), SNP 34 (+15), LibDems 13 (-1), Con 10 (NC), Green 1.
2.20 Labour hold Linlithgow. Mary Mulligan, one of the intellectual theorists (more or less) of the Labour back benches, returns to Holyrood.
1.47 Labour hold Eastwood.
1.45 SNP gains Livingston; Robin Cook birls in grave. Time for a bacon sandwich.
1.40 Quote of the day: by a Dutch elections expert on Radio Scotland:
"Why combine paper voting with electronic counting? It's like putting a steam train on the Inter-City."
He's obviously never travelled on the Edinburgh-Glasgow line.
1.35 Latest overall results position: Lab 36, SNP 33, LibDems 12, Con 10, Greens 1. Looking very bad for the smaller parties. Will Lab and LibDems secure enough seats to secure a majority? Looks a bit dodgy...
1.25 Mid Scotland and Fife list produces 3 for Lab, 3 for Con and 1 for the SNP; the latter is the daft as a brush historian Christopher Harvie which will certainly add to the eccentricity of the Parliament. This represents 3 gains for Labour, no change for Con, a loss each for the SNP, the LibDems and - sadly - for the Greens, as Mark Ruskell seemed to be one of the more sensible MSPs in the previous parliament.
1.10 At last, a Labour gain! Unfortunately, it is only Strathkelvin where Dr Turner (Ind) returns to the oblivion from whence she came. But it brings spin-doctor Whitton to Holyrood, not necessarily something to be welcomed.
1.00 Republican Rose is alleged to have held Perth for the SNP and John Swinney has also held his seat in Tayside Whatever.
12.45 An utterly splendid opening sentence in a Guardian article:
Apparently, the reporter's name is Mr Batty. Btw, sorry about the goat.
12.25 I'm beginning to lose faith in the BBC stats. The latest position is that Lab have 32 (-8), SNP 30 (+15), LibDems 12 (no change), Con 7 (no change), Greens 1. Counting at Argyll & Bute will not re-start until 3pm, which will also hold up the announcement of the Highland list. The remaining Edinburgh seats are expected to declare from 1.30 pm onwards.
12.10 Higgins leads Maguire by one frame.
12.05 SNP defeat Labour in the Western Isles!
11.50 The BBC website is reporting that the South of Scotland list vote is showing two SNP gains, one at the expense of the Tories and the other loss is Rosemary Byrne, formerly of the SSP. They have yet to update the overall table but by my calculations Lab and the SNP are now equal on 31 seats actually gained.
11.30 Something of a lull for the moment, only enlivened by the BBC's sneaky and unexplained amendment of their results table to read Lab 32, SNP 29, LibDems 12, Con 7 and Greens 1. In the absence of anything else happening, I will take a break. I'll be back when there is something to report.
11.10 To turn to the slaughter of the innocents. After 13 Council election declarations, Labour have lost to NOC the following councils: Clackmannanshire, East Ayrshire, East Lothian, Midlothian and South Lanarkshire. The Independents have lost Moray to NOC. NOC seems to be doing well...
11.00 Yet to declare: Aberdeen Central, Argyll & Bute, Eastwood, Edinburgh East, North, South and West, Linlithgow, Livingston, Perth, Strathkelvin, Tayside North and Western Isles (13 seats) plus list seats for all regions except Glasgow and Central (35 seats) - despite the BBC website claiming that three regions have declared.
10.35 Ballsup! Forget all that nonsense at 10.05 about the West of Scotland announcement - my fault for failing to read website properly. Latest table: Lab 32, SNP 31, LibDem 11, Con 6, Greens 1; 81 declared.
10.25 This is not a prediction but... At present Labour has lost 7 seats (this is actual rather than projected) - if they neither lost or gained any more seats, they would end up with 43 seats (down from 50 in 2003). By contrast, the SNP has gained 16 seats, which means that, in the absence of any further gains or losses, they would also end up with 43 seats (up from 27). Intriguing, no?
10.05 The West of Scotland list has now announced. Annabel, Ross Finnie and Frances Curran of the SSP (Surprise!) are all back, plus three Nats. There is something wrong with the BBC's overall picture which is showing Lab with 32 and the SNP 31 but the LibDem still have only 11, the Tories 6 and Others 1 despite their gains in the West of Scotland.
10.00 So farewell Tommy. The permatanned one has fallen off the list, due to the fact that Solidarity only attracted 4.1% of the Glasgow list vote. He can take some consolation in having battered (probably to death) the SSP who only secured 1.2%. So farewell Rosie in addition. In the 2003 election, the SSP including both Tommy and Rosie managed 15.2%; how the mighty are fallen.
9.45 Interesting that the Welsh have managed to declare 52 out of 60 seats compared with our 74 out of 129. Of course they don't have to rely on banana boats in the Clyde or toy helicopters. Nor do they have fancy voting systems for their local authorities.
9.35 I am delighted of course that so many people decided to follow my lead in spoiling their ballot papers. I have to confess, however, that when I went to the polls yesterday lunchtime, I had to wait for ten minutes behind a poor old soul who must have been well over 80; she didn't have a clue about the different voting systems, despite the manfully patient efforts of officials to explain it to her. My suspicion is that her confusion was replicated all over the country.
9.25 Now that the first shift of broadcasters have gone to bed, I am having to rely on a mixture of the BBC website together with BBC News 24. Not sure if any of the counts (I mean election counts in case anyone thinks that was a typing error) are continuing.
9.10 According to the BBC, the latest position (including the Central and Glasgow list results) is that Lab have 32 seats, the SNP 24, the LibDems 11, Con 6 and the Greens 1. Still no Edinburgh results. (Let me offer you a technical appreciation of the problem: if the damn computers can go wrong, they will.)
9.00 Morning all! Whit a shambles! I stayed up until 2.40 am, by which time it was clear that everything would remain muddy until this morning. Having listened to GMS for the past hour, it is obvious that the best predictions are that the outcome will be close. Whether that is because it will actually be close or because the pundits are insufficiently informed to commit themselves remains to be seen.
SNP 47
Lab 46
Con 17
LibDem 16
Greens 2
Margo 1
More thoughts tomorrow. Hey, but you can do the sums as well as I can. It's been fun. Have a good evening. As we used to say in Brussels, 'Bon Weekend'.
5.20 The North-East list delivers 2 seats each to SNP, Lab and Con with the last one going to the LibDems. We remain with 14 seats undecided. Lab and SNP each have 42 seats, LibDems 16 and Con 14, plus our solitary Green. It is now unlikely that any two parties (other than Lab and SNP together) could command a majority. We are therefore looking at a minority coalition, if not another election.
4.50 Libdems have held Edinburgh West, which leaves only the list votes for the Lothians, the North-East and the Highlands and islands. Results table is both Lab and SNP on 40, LibDems on 15, Con 12 and our solitary Green. Still awfully tight.
4.40 Big Malkie remains my MSP in Edinburgh North. The latest BBC results table shows that SNP now have 40 seats (+18), Lab 39 (-6), LibDems 14 (-2), Con 12 (NC), Greens 1. This reflects the West of Scotland list which allocated 4 seats to SNP, 2 to Con and 1 to the LibDems. This represent a gain of one for the SNP at the expense of the SSP.
3.40 Argyll and Bute goes SNP; LibDems cry in their beer. This is all getting very tight. We should now get the Highlands and Islands list vote soon. We're also waiting for my own constituency of Edinburgh North.
3.35 There's a disappointment for me. SNP gain Edinburgh East and the likeable Norman Murray goes west. Norman would have made a good MSP.
3.20 I'm just about hanging on here for the remaining Edinburgh results. The broadcast media have more or less abandoned me, I suspect on yesterday's assumption that it would all have been over by now. Alternatively, they're all just knackered after last night. I wonder what Messrs McConnell and Salmond are doing? Sleeping, probably.
3.10 Labour hold Aberdeen Central. With 39 seats, Labour creeps closer to becoming the largest party, now 5 ahead of the SNP.
2.45 The first of the remaining Edinburgh seats to declare is Edinburgh South which is a LibDem hold. Tough for Donald Anderson, former Labour leader of Edinburgh Council. Latest overall position: Lab 38 (-5), SNP 34 (+15), LibDems 13 (-1), Con 10 (NC), Green 1.
2.20 Labour hold Linlithgow. Mary Mulligan, one of the intellectual theorists (more or less) of the Labour back benches, returns to Holyrood.
1.47 Labour hold Eastwood.
1.45 SNP gains Livingston; Robin Cook birls in grave. Time for a bacon sandwich.
1.40 Quote of the day: by a Dutch elections expert on Radio Scotland:
"Why combine paper voting with electronic counting? It's like putting a steam train on the Inter-City."
He's obviously never travelled on the Edinburgh-Glasgow line.
1.35 Latest overall results position: Lab 36, SNP 33, LibDems 12, Con 10, Greens 1. Looking very bad for the smaller parties. Will Lab and LibDems secure enough seats to secure a majority? Looks a bit dodgy...
1.25 Mid Scotland and Fife list produces 3 for Lab, 3 for Con and 1 for the SNP; the latter is the daft as a brush historian Christopher Harvie which will certainly add to the eccentricity of the Parliament. This represents 3 gains for Labour, no change for Con, a loss each for the SNP, the LibDems and - sadly - for the Greens, as Mark Ruskell seemed to be one of the more sensible MSPs in the previous parliament.
1.10 At last, a Labour gain! Unfortunately, it is only Strathkelvin where Dr Turner (Ind) returns to the oblivion from whence she came. But it brings spin-doctor Whitton to Holyrood, not necessarily something to be welcomed.
1.00 Republican Rose is alleged to have held Perth for the SNP and John Swinney has also held his seat in Tayside Whatever.
12.45 An utterly splendid opening sentence in a Guardian article:
A goat that gained international notoriety last year after getting married to a Sudanese man who indecently assaulted her has died after accidentally choking on a plastic bag.
Apparently, the reporter's name is Mr Batty. Btw, sorry about the goat.
12.25 I'm beginning to lose faith in the BBC stats. The latest position is that Lab have 32 (-8), SNP 30 (+15), LibDems 12 (no change), Con 7 (no change), Greens 1. Counting at Argyll & Bute will not re-start until 3pm, which will also hold up the announcement of the Highland list. The remaining Edinburgh seats are expected to declare from 1.30 pm onwards.
12.10 Higgins leads Maguire by one frame.
12.05 SNP defeat Labour in the Western Isles!
11.50 The BBC website is reporting that the South of Scotland list vote is showing two SNP gains, one at the expense of the Tories and the other loss is Rosemary Byrne, formerly of the SSP. They have yet to update the overall table but by my calculations Lab and the SNP are now equal on 31 seats actually gained.
11.30 Something of a lull for the moment, only enlivened by the BBC's sneaky and unexplained amendment of their results table to read Lab 32, SNP 29, LibDems 12, Con 7 and Greens 1. In the absence of anything else happening, I will take a break. I'll be back when there is something to report.
11.10 To turn to the slaughter of the innocents. After 13 Council election declarations, Labour have lost to NOC the following councils: Clackmannanshire, East Ayrshire, East Lothian, Midlothian and South Lanarkshire. The Independents have lost Moray to NOC. NOC seems to be doing well...
11.00 Yet to declare: Aberdeen Central, Argyll & Bute, Eastwood, Edinburgh East, North, South and West, Linlithgow, Livingston, Perth, Strathkelvin, Tayside North and Western Isles (13 seats) plus list seats for all regions except Glasgow and Central (35 seats) - despite the BBC website claiming that three regions have declared.
10.35 Ballsup! Forget all that nonsense at 10.05 about the West of Scotland announcement - my fault for failing to read website properly. Latest table: Lab 32, SNP 31, LibDem 11, Con 6, Greens 1; 81 declared.
10.25 This is not a prediction but... At present Labour has lost 7 seats (this is actual rather than projected) - if they neither lost or gained any more seats, they would end up with 43 seats (down from 50 in 2003). By contrast, the SNP has gained 16 seats, which means that, in the absence of any further gains or losses, they would also end up with 43 seats (up from 27). Intriguing, no?
10.05 The West of Scotland list has now announced. Annabel, Ross Finnie and Frances Curran of the SSP (Surprise!) are all back, plus three Nats. There is something wrong with the BBC's overall picture which is showing Lab with 32 and the SNP 31 but the LibDem still have only 11, the Tories 6 and Others 1 despite their gains in the West of Scotland.
10.00 So farewell Tommy. The permatanned one has fallen off the list, due to the fact that Solidarity only attracted 4.1% of the Glasgow list vote. He can take some consolation in having battered (probably to death) the SSP who only secured 1.2%. So farewell Rosie in addition. In the 2003 election, the SSP including both Tommy and Rosie managed 15.2%; how the mighty are fallen.
9.45 Interesting that the Welsh have managed to declare 52 out of 60 seats compared with our 74 out of 129. Of course they don't have to rely on banana boats in the Clyde or toy helicopters. Nor do they have fancy voting systems for their local authorities.
9.35 I am delighted of course that so many people decided to follow my lead in spoiling their ballot papers. I have to confess, however, that when I went to the polls yesterday lunchtime, I had to wait for ten minutes behind a poor old soul who must have been well over 80; she didn't have a clue about the different voting systems, despite the manfully patient efforts of officials to explain it to her. My suspicion is that her confusion was replicated all over the country.
9.25 Now that the first shift of broadcasters have gone to bed, I am having to rely on a mixture of the BBC website together with BBC News 24. Not sure if any of the counts (I mean election counts in case anyone thinks that was a typing error) are continuing.
9.10 According to the BBC, the latest position (including the Central and Glasgow list results) is that Lab have 32 seats, the SNP 24, the LibDems 11, Con 6 and the Greens 1. Still no Edinburgh results. (Let me offer you a technical appreciation of the problem: if the damn computers can go wrong, they will.)
9.00 Morning all! Whit a shambles! I stayed up until 2.40 am, by which time it was clear that everything would remain muddy until this morning. Having listened to GMS for the past hour, it is obvious that the best predictions are that the outcome will be close. Whether that is because it will actually be close or because the pundits are insufficiently informed to commit themselves remains to be seen.
02 May 2007
Don't encourage them, but...
So how am I going to vote?
Well it's not going to be easy, even though my constituency is relatively straightforward, with only the four main parties in contention. I suppose that my natural inclination would be to vote Labour and there is no doubt that Mr Malcolm Chisholm is a decent bloke (at least for a politician). But the thought of another four years of Mr McConnell is kind of off-putting. I cannot bring myself to vote SNP (despite an eminently worthy candidate in Mr Davie Hutchison) or Conservative - hey it's a cultural thing (or a blatant prejudice). The LibDems are neither one thing nor another and I have a philosophical objection to the fact that despite being losers they always seem to find themselves in possession of the Ministerial Mondeos. So I guess I will do what I always do - spoil my ballot paper. I know, I know, it's a wasted vote - but if more of us wasted our votes the parties might get the message.
As for the regional list, I think it will be a toss-up between the Greens and the blessed Margo. I have yet to decide.
I have not even begun to think about the council vote, so I will probably decide who gets the 1, 2, 3, 4, etc in the polling booth.
What strikes me about the above is how little policies matter when deciding how to vote. We do it on the basis of a mixture of prejudice, inclination and whether the candidate seems to be a reasonable sort. Perhaps there are some of us whose vote is determined by policy on local income tax or by education, education, education, but I suspect that they are few and far between. If everyone is as unrational as I am, I could almost feel sorry for politicians. But then I remember the wisdom of crowds.
Finally, a word in favour of the politicians. If they did not put themselves forward for criticism, ridicule and abuse, we would all be in a sorry state. The rewards of running for office are meagre; and many of them will be desperately disappointed tomorrow evening. To politicians I offer the following thought - if you win, my congratulations; if you lose, then better luck next time.
Well it's not going to be easy, even though my constituency is relatively straightforward, with only the four main parties in contention. I suppose that my natural inclination would be to vote Labour and there is no doubt that Mr Malcolm Chisholm is a decent bloke (at least for a politician). But the thought of another four years of Mr McConnell is kind of off-putting. I cannot bring myself to vote SNP (despite an eminently worthy candidate in Mr Davie Hutchison) or Conservative - hey it's a cultural thing (or a blatant prejudice). The LibDems are neither one thing nor another and I have a philosophical objection to the fact that despite being losers they always seem to find themselves in possession of the Ministerial Mondeos. So I guess I will do what I always do - spoil my ballot paper. I know, I know, it's a wasted vote - but if more of us wasted our votes the parties might get the message.
As for the regional list, I think it will be a toss-up between the Greens and the blessed Margo. I have yet to decide.
I have not even begun to think about the council vote, so I will probably decide who gets the 1, 2, 3, 4, etc in the polling booth.
What strikes me about the above is how little policies matter when deciding how to vote. We do it on the basis of a mixture of prejudice, inclination and whether the candidate seems to be a reasonable sort. Perhaps there are some of us whose vote is determined by policy on local income tax or by education, education, education, but I suspect that they are few and far between. If everyone is as unrational as I am, I could almost feel sorry for politicians. But then I remember the wisdom of crowds.
Finally, a word in favour of the politicians. If they did not put themselves forward for criticism, ridicule and abuse, we would all be in a sorry state. The rewards of running for office are meagre; and many of them will be desperately disappointed tomorrow evening. To politicians I offer the following thought - if you win, my congratulations; if you lose, then better luck next time.
Tactical voting?
I can see that they want to stop the SNP, but I am otherwise rather flummoxed by this Times editorial:
Tories vote for Labour on the constituency vote, while Labour voters opt for Tory on the regional list? It'll never happen. Sometimes, newspapers can be too damn clever for their own good.
In the constituency section of the ballot, Scots need to rally to either the Labour Party (in most instances) or in some seats the Liberal Democrats to defeat the SNP contender. That party should not emerge as the largest one in the next Parliament... The Tories stand no realistic chance in at least 67 and possibly 70 of these 73 constituencies. The Centre Right must be ready to vote tactically.
On the second ballot, though, it is important that moderate centre-left voters reciprocate. The Scottish Tories are far from a perfect vehicle for market economics but they do, most of the time, approach politics from that perspective.
Tories vote for Labour on the constituency vote, while Labour voters opt for Tory on the regional list? It'll never happen. Sometimes, newspapers can be too damn clever for their own good.
Every picture tells a story
Your favourite YouTube election vids are now up at the roundup, including the Patsy Hewitt faux pas and, of course, the one and only The Best Wee Numpty in the World.
Apologies to all those civil servants in the Scottish Executive, as they are not allowed to play YouTube vids on their computers. You guys will just need to access them at home (or when you are on strike).
Will the vids make any practical difference in terms of the election results? Don't know but they have certainly added to the gaiety of the nation. And perhaps Mr McConnell will think twice before he next mentions Scotland's role in the world...
Apologies to all those civil servants in the Scottish Executive, as they are not allowed to play YouTube vids on their computers. You guys will just need to access them at home (or when you are on strike).
Will the vids make any practical difference in terms of the election results? Don't know but they have certainly added to the gaiety of the nation. And perhaps Mr McConnell will think twice before he next mentions Scotland's role in the world...
01 May 2007
Syntactic Structures re-visited
Shuggy, the Chomsky de nos jours, has a problem with New Labour syntax:
Says it all really. Perhaps Big Gordon - who must have learned how to do parsing at Kirkcaldy High School - will be better at sentence construction. But I wouldn't count on it.
Amongst the many problems I have with NuLabour is with the verbs.
Or the lack of them.
New Labour.
Forward - not back.
New - not old.
New, good.
Old, bad.
More bullshit.
Fewer verbs.
I miss the verbs.
Any politician that campaigns on a platform of more verbs and less bullshit has my vote, is all I'm saying.
Says it all really. Perhaps Big Gordon - who must have learned how to do parsing at Kirkcaldy High School - will be better at sentence construction. But I wouldn't count on it.
Poverty of ambition
Here are the programme schedules for STV on Thursday evening. It will be readily apparent that they are completely ignoring the elections. No Bernard Ponsonby, no Shereen Nanjiani, no nothing.
I readily admit that the BBC is probably the first choice on election night, but Brian, Glenn and Jackie can be tedious (even precious) at times. During the more boring interviews (for example with Nicol Stephen), it is handy to be able to flip the channel to see what STV are up to. But for STV to avoid even challenging the Beeb on the most exciting political night in Scotland for at least two years is more than depressing - it is a sign that STV has given up any pretention to be a national broadcaster.
I readily admit that the BBC is probably the first choice on election night, but Brian, Glenn and Jackie can be tedious (even precious) at times. During the more boring interviews (for example with Nicol Stephen), it is handy to be able to flip the channel to see what STV are up to. But for STV to avoid even challenging the Beeb on the most exciting political night in Scotland for at least two years is more than depressing - it is a sign that STV has given up any pretention to be a national broadcaster.
30 April 2007
Look away please
I really do not approve of treating our potential MSPs as sex objects, but some of my readers (actually both of them) may derive some titillation from this utterly disgraceful website.
The fact that, at the time of writing, Bruce Crawford is in the top ten male selections says all you need to know about the standards of sexiness prevalent in our political candidates.
The fact that, at the time of writing, Bruce Crawford is in the top ten male selections says all you need to know about the standards of sexiness prevalent in our political candidates.
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