Entertaining but improbable

It is not easy to be a political commentator. Every week, you must find something to write about. Every week, you must combine entertainment with political insight. Matthew Parris of The Times does it better than most. But this week he is stretched into improbability (here):

"Tracey Temple may unwittingly have thrown the points. A possible job vacancy looms which, if filled by the former postman to Dorneywood (honestly, you couldn’t make this up) could give the Labour Party that sense of an opening door which until now has been missing. Alan Johnson could be the ultimate third way.
Labour leaders are chosen by Labour MPs, the trades unions and ordinary party members. A recent ICM Guardian poll suggested, intriguingly, that Mr Brown has by no means taken his own party membership by storm. And have we any reason to believe the trade union movement will prefer Mr Brown to a former postman and former General Secretary of the Union of Communications Workers who seems able to talk like a good trade unionist without sounding like a Luddite?
I will not repeat what I wrote about Mr Johnson on this page in April. I am not a Johnson-watcher and do not know him; I just find that whenever one happens to see or listen to this man he appears well-judged, capable, moderate and likeable. He is clearly ambitious, but seems like a human being. He has a directness of speech. Plus (it would be dishonest not to include this, for it will make a difference) he is English."

First, there is no job vacancy; and neither Mr Blair nor Mr Brown has any interest in creating one - and Mr Prescott shows no sign of looking for his revolver. But, if Mr Prescott were to resign as Deputy Party Leader (and it is not in Mr Blair's gift to sack him), then it is Mr Blair's jacket on a shoogly peg. Bottom line: Mr Johnson has no chance of becoming Deputy Leader before Mr Brown assumes the throne. In effect, Mr Johnson is at present manoeuvring for the deputy slot in a Brown administration, which is why no-one is getting upset. If Mr Johnson was a threat to the Chancellor, he would be taken down in an instant, like all the others who have tried it on. Watch the way in which Dr Reid will be gradually knee-capped over the next few months.

Plus Mr Johnson is English; he's no match for Mr Brown.

Update: Here are the betting odds:

"In the Labour leadership betting Johnson has tightened to 9.5/1 on Betfair although there’s a bookmaner price of 14/1. Brown is 0.36/1."