Doing the sums

It is a great achievement to be sitting at the top of the table at this stage, one point ahead of Italy and two points ahead of France. But consider the remaining three matches to be played.

Scotland has the Ukraine at home, Georgia away and Italy at home. France has the Faroes away, Lithuania at home and the Ukraine away. Italy has Georgia at home, Scotland away and the Faroes at home.

It is difficult to believe that France will not secure at least six points from its three remaining fixtures, with the difficult away match at the Ukraine the only obvious significant hurdle. That would mean France ended up with 25 points, even if they lose to the Ukraine.

Similarly, Italy seems likely to defeat both Georgia and the Faroes at home, leaving Italy with 26 points plus whatever they can take from Hampden.

Accordingly, in order to qualify, Scotland will need to take at least four points from their three remaining games and perhaps more. Far from impossible, but not at all easy.

But then, who would have thought that we'd take six points off France?