07 August 2008

Interpreting the Labour leadership runes

Mr Gray has garnered 13 leadership nominations, compared with Ms Jamieson's 12 and Mr Kerr's 10. (There are 46 Labour MSPs, so at least 11 of them have kept their powder dry.)

Mr Kerr has blotted his copybook with Scottish Westminster MPs by implying (in the nicest possible way of course) that the leader should have more responsibility for the party in Scotland than simply running the Holyrood group. Accordingly, the MPs (allegedly guided by the perception of Gordon Brown's preference) are lining up to support Mr Gray, to the extent that the latter would appear to have that third of the electoral college in the bag. Mr Gray's first problem - not insuperable, I admit - is that he is not a West of Scotland MSP. His second problem is that he is allegedly the favoured candidate of Gordon Brown.

Mr Kerr also has form, perhaps unfairly, in terms of his ministerial record at the health department. Nevertheless, even although he is unlikely to gain the majority of votes in one third of the electoral college, it would be foolish to rule out his chances overall.

Nobody knows how party members will vote. The unions are thought to favour Ms Jamieson on the basis that she is perceived to be the most left-wing candidate (not that you would know it from her ministerial record at Justice).

Nevertheless, it seems to me to be entirely possible, perhaps even probable, that the new leader of the Labour group at Holyrood will be someone who does not command the whole-hearted support of the majority of that group. But that goes with the territory.

1 comment:

Marco Biagi said...

And given how long Wendy Alexander stayed leader after she had announced her support for an independence referendum, it surely goes with the precedent as well.