16 April 2015

Where we are

The Guardian seeks to make sense of the current opinion polls:
Based on current projections, the most important numbers to follow are on the one hand the combined Labour-SNP bloc, and on the other the Tory-Lib Dem bloc. These calculations matter as they will most probably determine which of David Cameron or Ed Miliband forms the next government.
Labour is currently projected to win 271 seats and the SNP 54. This adds up to 325, enough to win a confidence vote in the Commons, and there could be an “anti-Tory” outright majority once the votes of Plaid Cymru (three), the SDLP (three) and the Greens (one) are also included.
The Conservatives are projected to win 270 seats and the Lib Dems 29. Even once possible support from Ukip (four seats) and the DUP (nine) is co-opted into the mix, the current government coalition would fall well short of a majority.
But these are based on poll snapshots.  Things might change over the next three weeks ...

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