13 July 2006

What's he talking about?

Our esteemed First Minister has suddenly become an expert in international economics. The Herald records his support for the euro:
"In the question-and-answer session, Ross McRae, from Williamwood High School in Glasgow, asked Mr McConnell if he thought Scotland could ever go it alone and join the euro. The First Minister said he thought that was impossible under the current constitutional arrangements, as Scotland would naturally keep the pound, but an independent Scotland might one day opt for to join the single currency.
However, he thought more likely the future was one in which Britain as a whole joined the euro. He said: "I personally don't have a problem with the euro as a currency for Scotland and the UK. I can remember the days when there were lots of different European currencies and that was not necessarily healthy." He said the massive trading blocks of India, China, Russia and South America made it necessary to Europe to have a single currency and a single economic market in order to compete. "A small place like Scotland or Britain or Sweden is not going to be able to do that. In the long term I don't have a problem with Britain being part of the euro."
Mr McConnell may wish to note that the economies of three of the four "massive trading blocks" he cites are much smaller than that of the UK. According to the World Bank (here), the UK's gdp in 2005 amounted to $2,192 billion, whereas that of Russia was $764 billion, that of India was $785 billion and that of South America as a whole was short of $1 billion. But even although the UK is the fifth biggest economy in the world, the First Minister thinks that on the grounds of size it won't be able to compete.

We don't know (probably just as well) what Mr McConnell thinks about the inflation problems faced by the Italian and Spanish economies which desperately need increases in interest rates which they can't have because of sluggish economic growth in Germany and France. Nor do we know what the First Minister thinks about the Chancellor's five tests and the likelihood of them being met in the foreseeable future. But never mind the usual labour party line to take on such matters, Mr McConnell thinks it likely that the UK will opt for the euro in the future.

Given his suggestion that an independent Scotland might one day adopt the euro, together with his earlier statements about the path to independence (here), I am tempted to wonder if Mr McConnell is about to defect to the SNP.

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