The game is afoot

It may get interesting soon. The poll published in today's Times (here) suggests that the Labour Party's lead at UK level is vanishing like snow off a dyke. Meanwhile, Labour in Scotland is beginning to think seriously about next year's elections for the Scottish Parliament, not helped by Mr Blair's comments yesterday on Scottish independence. Ian Bell in The Herald sets the scene:

"Even before Blair spoke, the MSPs had sensed that voters were about to scatter in all directions, with consequences they dread to contemplate. They had drawn the lesson of the Dunfermline disaster, a lesson confirmed by the Moray by-election and the English local elections. When the prime minister asserted that the usual battle with the SNP over independence is "one major, major issue that will be at the heart of the campaign" next year, every fear must have been confirmed: Blair hasn't a clue. Things are much more complicated, and much more dangerous for Labour, than that. Hence last week's leak of the results of Scottish Labour's private polls. The news, to be shared with back benchers on Wednesday, is by all accounts grim: perhaps a 5% drop in the Labour vote and anything from six to a dozen seats forfeit, depending on the effects of the list system."

It is worth reiterating the facts: Labout holds 50 seats out of the 129 seat parliament, with the LibDems adding another 17. The coalition only needs to lose three seats at the election to deprive it of a working majority. The prospect of at least another 12 months of Blair-Brown bickering is unlikely to enhance Labour's prospects in Scotland. And do Labour MSPs particularly want to remain in bed with the LibDems anyway? From now on, every item of political news will be refracted through the prism of next year's elections.

So what will the First Minister do? If and when he understands the position he is in, he will probably panic. In which case, expect blood to flow.