"But the key lesson of history for Mr Brown concerns the steps he must take to avoid the long-term fate of John Major: to do this he must immediately ditch the Blairite policies most responsible for the present Government’s demise. Mr Blair’s equivalent of poll tax may be legislation on ID cards or hospital reforms, but the policy at the heart of Mr Blair’s failure — the equivalent of the rows and misjudgments over ERM membership under Margaret Thatcher and then under John Major — is Mr Blair’s relationship with the Bush Administration and his policy on Iraq.
By pulling out of Iraq and breaking publicly with the Bush Administration (which by then will itself be in terminal decline), Mr Brown could win himself so much credit with the Labour Party and the affluent middle classes that he could do almost anything else he might choose with the health service, taxes, pensions or schools. Mr Major’s fate was sealed by the way he stuck to a policy that was doomed to failure — membership of the ERM.
If Mr Brown heeds the rhymes of history, he will ditch the foreign policy that has been responsible for Mr Blair’s demise. If he does this, he could yet turn a funeral dirge into a song of triumph."
But it says something when a senior commentator in The Times is prepared to indulge in such fantasy. But, maybe, just maybe, such a prediction might prove accurate?
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