I see that the Alexander siblings have decided that a referendum on independence might after all be a Good Thing. Wendy is even prepared for the test of a simple yea or nay to independence, thus forswearing the triple option referendum of independence, status quo or enhanced devolution (which - if you believe the polls - would have reduced the level of support for independence). And she wants it to happen as soon as possible -or at least well before 2010, which is where the SNP administration's plans are leading.
But, assuming that Mr Salmond were to resist Ms Alexander's (rather vulgar) invitation to 'bring it on' and sticks to his planned timetable, what could Ms Alexander do about it? She would either have to bring forward her own bill for a consultative referendum to the Scottish Parliament or rely on her London colleagues to bring forward a similar bill to the Westminster Parliament (or more likely to include similar provision in the forthcoming constitutional bill). The latter course of action pre-supposes that the Prime Minister supports her latest change of heart (or emphasis), a proposition which may - or may not - prove to be the case. But let us place that question to one side, as the choice of legislature does not -I suggest - invalidate the following thesis.
To state the obvious, we are now in May 2008. Even if Ms Alexander, like Marvo the Magician, had a bill up her capacious sleeve which, with a drumroll and an expansive flourish, she could instantly lay before the tribunes of the Scottish electorate, there is no possible prospect of securing the passage of such a bill during the current (2007-08) parliamentary session. The mill-wheels of the Scottish Parliament grind slowly, with a bit of consultation here and a referral to committee there, debates on principle first and on detailed proposed amendments to follow. And, anyway, the likelihood that Ms Alexander has a bill up her sleeve is improbable, to say the least.
But (and it is a big but), if she gets her skates on, she could in theory have a bill ready for the start of the 2008-09 parliamentary session in the autumn of this year. (I am nevertheless obliged to point out that it is difficult for opposition parties to draft a bill, as the legal expertise lies with the official authorities under the control of the administration; but let us not be too pessimistic.) If such a bill were introduced later this year, then theoretically it could complete its parliamentary process and become an Act sometime in mid-2009, thus facilitating the holding of a referendum in the autumn of 2009 or, more likely, the spring of the following year.
The more astute of you will have noticed that we have already arrived at 2010. This is not so surprising. If I were the First Minister and I wanted to hold a referendum in 2010, then I would be planning for the bill to underpin such a referendum to go through the parliamentary process in 2008-09. To leave it any later would be risky in the extreme, especially in the light of the Scottish general election in 2011 and the increasingly distinct possibility of a UK general election in 2010. (Unless of course Mr Salmond did not expect to carry the bill, in which case the timing would be less crucial - but now that the concept of a referendum has attracted the support of the Alexanders the omens are becoming more propitious.)
So what is Ms Alexander playing at in demanding that Mr Salmond 'bring it on'? 'It' will be 'brought on' as soon as it can and, in any case, sooner than many of us would like.
I leave my readers to judge whether Wendy is being extremely clever or has simply not thought the position through.
1 comment:
As an SNP member, I am, needless to say, in favour of independence, for many many reasons, not least of which I believe Scotland would be a lot better off without the condescending help of the English, and that Mother of All Parliaments making a Mother of All Fuck Ups every 5 years or so, leaving us, the diminutive 5 million of Scotland having to contend with policies that are aimed at, designed for and chosen by the somewhat larger population of 50 million living in "that other place".
That is, however irrelevant for the moment. I favour independence. So, according to the Polls do a substantial number of others, maybe not a majority, maybe so, depends on which poll you trust and how you ask it.
I'm also, in the event not enough support independence, in favour of more powers for the Scottish Parliament. The less Westminster have over us, the less they can screw up.
Apparently, a large majority of other people also think this way, so even if I lost the independence thing, I've got a safety backup of more power for Holyrood, maybe even fiscal autonomy so we don't have to go cap-in-hand to London every 4 years with a begging bowl.
Even if this were not the case, however, apparently over 85% of the population when polled want a referendum containing some if not all of these options. Because we have a right to decide.
Up until last week, Labour don't seem to think so. They were not wanting any referendum, and even if they let one in, definitely not one that says the "I" word. Apparently someone tipped off Bendy Wendy that not only would these make her look a bit less than democratic, like third-reich-less-than-democratic, but would also be really unpopular with them "voter-thingies", practically guarantee the SNP a total majority after 2011, not to mention lead Wendy personally to be having to go back to Glasgow Cali for a lecturing job. If they'll have her.
Wendy's therefore opted to get it out and over quickly, a kind of brainless damage-control plan. Doomed to fail from the start, since, as you mention, the SNP control Parliament and will stall for all they're worth to delay it till 2010, and as political master-strokes go, defeating your enemies by giving them exactly what they want isn't really up there with the Picard Manoeuvre.
Of course, she's really doing this because it's generating massive waves everywhere that, see, Labour aren't undemocratic, failed, doomed and hopelessly out-of-touch; they're leading the fight, see? It's taking the tabloids adhd-like attention span away from Labour's worst election defeat in around 50 years, and making Wendy look something other than blitheringly incompetent, weak, stupid and hopelessly out of her depth with the big fish like Mr. Salmond.
At least, that was the plan.
Better go think it out again, Wendy.....
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