The Lisbon Treaty is dead - probably

We are still awaiting formal confirmation but the Irish appear to have said no. On the basis that the treaty depends upon ratification by all the Member States, this would appear to deliver a death-blow to the constitutional changes which it proposes. So no reduction in the number of Commissioners, no beefed-up foreign affairs representative, no semi-permanent president of the Council and no extension of qualified majority voting.

In theory, the EU Council could offer some treaty concessions to the Irish which might conceivably persuade them to hold another referendum - after all, it worked last time. But it would be an awfully long shot. And any substantive change to the proposed treaty might require a re-ratification process throughout the EU. But, unless there are substantive changes, the Irish are just as likely to vote no once again.

So what happens now? Well, the EU will no doubt continue to function on the basis of the Nice Treaty, as it has done - not unsatisfactorily - for the past few years. It would be far from ideal: Lisbon would have introduced some welcome constitutional changes. But it would not be the end of the world.

Meanwhile, constitutional change would be kicked into the long grass. I doubt if there is any appetite for continued constitutional debate, and some minor changes could be made on an ad hoc basis without the need for a new treaty.

Meanwhile, back at the Westminster ranch, there seems little point in continuing to process the bill ratifying Lisbon, even if it has just about completed parliamentary procedure. It really doesn't matter whether the UK ratifies the treaty - the Irish no has scuppered it. For the same reason, there is no point in continuing to argue for a UK referendum on Lisbon.

It is on days like this that I wish I were back in Brussels - Friday afternoon, Rudi would have produced a couple of bottles of wine, Gabrielle would have bought a gateau and some pastries, and my unit would have shot the breeze on what all this really meant. Those were indeed the days ...