The plot thickens

At last, some journalists are beginning to think through the implications of the SNP advance towards next May's elections. Ian Bell offers an interesting hypothesis in The Herald:

"Hard choices face the Nationalists. Polling evidence, even suspect polling evidence, points to success next May. The singular fact of Scottish political life, meanwhile, is that the LibDems are prepared to cut a deal with just about anyone, saying one thing at Westminster and another at Holyrood. But does the SNP really want to risk a forfeit by betting a historic electoral victory against a very risky referendum? It is hard to see how Salmond - or Sturgeon, for that matter - could now relinquish the pledge. Should the Nationalists attempt even to postpone a vote on independence there would be ridicule, and worse. Yet if on day 100 of an SNP administration we find ourselves deciding the fate of the UK, the British state will use every means to influence the choice.
I doubt sincerely that Salmond, or his party, or the Scottish public have thought it through. This is not Quebec. Apathetic opinion in Scotland will not stand for a vote ceaselessly repeated, generation after generation. The SNP, in other words, will have one shot at convincing us. If it fails..., there will be no good reason for a Nationalist party even to exist. Ironically enough, that will suit some within Salmond's party. It will not impress many of the rest of us, however. Independent or not? There is no room for intellectually-respectable obfuscation, even in a globalised world. Still, you glean the distinct impression that the SNP might yet regret even asking the question."

I continue to think that it is too easy to dismiss the legal obstacles in the way of the Scottish Parliament setting up an independence referendum, for the reasons given here.

And even if the SNP became the largest party in the Parliament (which would require it to make even more gains than presently anticipated - the SNP has 26 seats at present compared with 50 for Labour), there is no guarantee that they would necessarily attract the support of the LibDems or the Greens against the counter-offers that would come from Labour.

On the (debatable) assumption that the SNP and Labour each collects between 35 and 40 seats, with the LibDems on the 20 to 25 mark, my own prediction would be for a period of stasis after next May, with multi-lateral negotiations failing to produce a stable coalition able to rely on majority support in the Parliament, leading eventually to a weak minority administration, thus putting the government of Scotland on a care and maintenance basis. Not an enticing prospect...