A tactical error?

You have to be sure of your ground if you are going to take on the anti-smoking lobby. But little deters the Scottish Licensed Trade Association. The Herald reports:

"SCOTLAND'S pubs could lose more than £150m this year because of the smoking ban, licensed trade representatives said yesterday. However, the trade was told that there will be no turning back regarding the ban. The £150m figure is the estimated annual cash impact of an 11% drop in drink sales, according to the Scottish Licensed Trade Association, which represents around a third of pubs. Food sales in licensed premises have also dropped, by 3%."

These figures are undermined by the following in the same newspaper:

"About 20% (365) of the SLTA's 1700 members took part in the survey, which was carried out in July, three months into the smoking ban."

So the survey covered one-third of 20% of Scottish pubs, or 365 out of the total of about 5,000, with no indication that the respondents were a representative sample. This means that some pretty heroic assumptions must have been made in grossing up losses to the figure of £150m. And it is far from difficult to find some big city centre pubs where trade is holding up. The SLTA might have done better to concentrate on the impact on particular kinds of rural or suburban pubs, rather than seeking to paint a picture at national level.