11 December 2006

Talk is cheap

The Labour party in Scotland is suddenly enamoured of minority administrations. The Scotsman reports:
LABOUR leaders have turned on their coalition partners for the first time in the run-up to next year's Holyrood polls to try to seize back the initiative after what has been a damaging period for Scotland's biggest party.
Senior Labour figures briefed against the Liberal Democrats in Sunday newspapers, claiming that Jack McConnell, the First Minister, might go it alone after the May elections.
Party insiders rubbished the performance of the Lib Dems and said Labour could rule as a minority government, relying on deals on individual issues, rather than a formal coalition.

I don't think that it would be quite as easy as suggested. In order to have first crack at forming a minority administration, Labour would need to have secured more seats than any other party; although this might be regarded as probable, it is far from guaranteed. Then comes the difficult bit: securing sufficient support from other parties to secure the nomination of First Minister and then to retain it. If the SNP and Libdems outnumber Labour (which seems highly likely) and if the Greens take their opposition to nuclear to its logical conclusion, then Labour would have to rely on the Tories. A lot would depend upon the actual seat numbers, but it all seems a bit iffy to me...

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