On voting intentions for regional list MSPs, Labour was ahead by 37% to 35%, meaning both gaps are within the 3% margin of error for polls of 1000 people. The LibDems were on 14% and the Conservatives on 10%.
According to James Mitchell, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, a calculation of how these might translate into seats would put Labour on 55, up five from their tally of seats at the 2003 election, the SNP would be on 45, up 18, while the LibDems would be up one on 18, the Tories would be down seven on 10 seats, and the Greens would secure only one seat, whereas they won seven in 2003. The poll, however, is national and fails to register local regional differences, so seat projections are less meaningful than voting intentions.
It hardly seems credible that Labour could gain 5 seats over their 2003 total. But who knows? Perhaps Mr McConnell could become a hero after all. Myself, I rather doubt it...
Expect the political soothsayers - hitherto predicting disaster for Labour - to become coy about further predictions (at least until the next poll).
Footnote: On 55 seats, Labour would not necessarily need the LibDems to command a majority - the support of the 10 Tories would be just enough to secure Mr McConnell's nomination as First Minister.
1 comment:
assuming on a good day that they take back Strathkelvin, and Falkirk West, they are unlikely to take Ochil, Dundee East or Aberdeen North, nor hold Western Isles or Glasgow Govan, because of the intensity of local campaigning by the SNP - national swings dont deliver in marginals where votes are more polarised, so I would agree I can't see where the 5 seats would come from. Ayr? Edinburgh Pentlands? Unlikely.
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