An anonymous poster on SNP Tactical Voting (here) has done the number-crunching and come up with the following result:
Lab 43 (-7)
SNP 38 (+11)
Con 22 (+4)
LD 17 (-)
Grn 5 (-2)
SSP/Sol 2 (-4)
Oth 2 (-2)
Nobody is seeking to argue that this is probable. But like Jeff's anonymous poster I don't think that it's wildly improbable. Even if the pollsters have corrected their earlier error, a modest surge for either the Tories or the LibDems might bring about a result not too far distant from the above. And it would certainly put the cat among the pigeons.
The SNP, despite having done very well, would be depressed at failing to become the largest party; even worse, Mr McConnell would be in the driving seat when it came to forming a coalition, despite the fact that Labour had done very badly. It might even be that on these figures Mr Salmond failed to win Gordon.
But Labour plus LibDem would not have a majority and would have to rely on the (tacit?) support of the Tories, even to form a minority administration, which in these circumstances would seem to be the most likely outcome.
But it will probably never happen. Will it?
2 comments:
I think the polls are, if anything, overestimating Labour support, rather than support for other parties. The Tories traditionally under-poll and generally that has been the case. However on current form, there is no reason to suggest that the polls are way out in terms of Tory support, they are probably quite close. But who knows, it is all guesswork!
The problem is he is using 'poll of polls' and not selecting the two pollsters who were fairly accurate - YouGov and System 3. In which case the consistency of YouGov shows the SNP in front and it's a shame that The Herald dumped System 3 on costs grounds because now they are runing the day mruk were contracted to undertake 'two' polls - one of which has been suppressed!
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