07 May 2007

So where are we now?

Well, the prospect of tense negotiations in smokefree - but still fetid - rooms seems to have receded somewhat. The LibDems' stated position, like that of the Tories, is that they are not prepared to coalesce with either the SNP or Labour (unless the SNP is prepared to abandon an independence referendum completely and utterly - which seems improbable).

Mr Salmond, with his 47 votes + 2 Greens, could still become First Minister, but it would require a peculiar set of circumstances to bring it about. On the assumption that Labour would vote against him, Mr Salmond would require both the Tories and the LibDems to sit on their hands and abstain on the vote for his nomination. As far as I am aware, neither of these two parties has committed itself to voting against Mr Salmond's nomination, so it remains a possibility. What price would they ask for that abstention, I wonder?

Mr McConnell, on the other hand, would require the active support of either the Tories or the LibDems and the abstention of the other in order to gain the prize. Again, it remains a (remote) possibility, but in the absence of a formal deal I can't see either party offering active support.

Even if either Mr Salmond or Mr McConnell were somehow to secure the nomination for First Minister, the parliamentary arithmetic would be extremely unstable. Would there be any hope of Parliament agreeing a legislative programme? Well, yes, possibly, but each individual item of legislation would require to be the subject of separate four-way horse-trading. But what would be the point of having an Executive that was only ever able to pursue legislation that was uncontroversial?

IMHO, the likeliest prospect is that the Parliament will fail to nominate a First Minister within the 28 day period. So we are in for another general election.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Can't see how Libs justify not talking to SNP without referendum being dropped. SNP have made clear that various compromises are on offer, inluding a constitutional convention. This is dunfamentaly anti-democractic behavious with strings being pulled by broon and Campbell. Or do we think that, despite assurances, and informal 'lab/lib deal' is being prepared - with Nicol as FM?!! As interesting is the power struggle clearly taking place within liberal group with tavish positioning himself carefuly!