05 May 2007

The science of muddling through

Neither of the two most likely coalitions, SNP-LibDem and Labour-LibDem, can command a simple majority of the parliament. In these circumstances, Michael White in The Guardian introduces us to a new term for the process of a minority administration:
Whoever emerges as Edinburgh's first minister in the next 28 days (the rules stipulate a deadline - or fresh elections), Scots may also have to grapple with a halfway house between formal coalition and minority rule.
Known as "C & S" - a term borrowed from New Zealand (full of Scots) - it stands for "confidence and supply". What it means is that the Lib Dems and perhaps the Greens, or even Tories, will promise to support the ruling party on its budget and in any votes of confidence.
In return, they get some policy concessions. But they remain free to vote against any of the 50 or so bills that ministers propose each year. If it sounds like a recipe for instability, it is part of the price which PR aficionados believe worth paying for consensus.

It sounds like a scientific term for muddling through. But, even if it were to be tried out, there remains the problem of those policy concessions. Will the SNP relinquish the concept of an independence referendum? Will the other parties accept the same concept - even if delayed to 2010 and weakened by addional questions on additional parliamentary powers? Will Labour relinquish the concepts of nuclear power and nuclear weapons? Or will the other parties accept some form of compromise on these issues? And is there a majority in parliament for any kind of reform (or retention) of local government finance?

So who's got the magic wand?

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