I want you to imagine that you are Mr Nicol Stephen - not a pleasant thought, I know, but bear with me. Let us also assume, somewhat heroically, that you are not a ragingly opportunistic careerist, obsessed with Ministerial salaries and Mondeos. Rather, we will posit that you are essentially a decent bloke, concerned to do what is right for your country and your party (albeit not necessarily in that order) in both the short-term and the long-term.
You woke up this morning feeling a bit glum. Your election campaign was less than a triumph. The number of LibDem seats fell from 17 to 16. You came fourth, again. All that brave talk about becoming First Minister has fizzled out. You cannot even deliver a majority to either of the two major parties seeking to woo you into a coalition. Instead there is going to have to be a messy three way negotiation with the Greens.
On a proposed coalition with the SNP, you have (rather stupidly) talked yourself into a corner. Yes, I know it might have been even worse if you had indicated during the election that you were prepared to consider some form of independence referendum. But we are where we are. And you said that you would have nothing to do with such a referendum. If you now accede to Alex's blandishments and agree to support him, everybody will say that you have broken your word. None of your promises will ever be believed again. And Ming would be seriously upset.
Alternatively, if you were to choose to prop up Labour, you might have to abandon your policy on the reform of local government finance and on nuclear power, upsetting your own activists. And you would be seen as taking sides with the party that 'lost' the election - some might describe that as an undemocratic choice. And, anyway, you are fed up to the back teeth with Jack McConnell and his merry band of rogues and rascals. Furthermore, being in coalition with that lot over the past eight years has not exactly increased your electoral success rate.
And you know that, whatever is the outcome of the negotiations, the resulting administration is not going to be stable. Sooner rather than later (perhaps as early as this autumn), you may have to face the electorate once again. Playing footsie with either the SNP or Labour is unlikely to deliver electoral benefits for the LibDems.
So there you are. You can choose to support the SNP or to support Labour. Alternatively, and following the breakdown of the negotiations, you could announce that (i) you had done your best to reach a satisfactory resolution but that you were not prepared to compromise the principles upon which you had fought the election and (ii) that you and your party intended to go into opposition from where you would play a constructive role in the best interests of the country... etc, etc, etc.
As decisions go, it's a no-brainer, isn't it?
3 comments:
Interesting as always. But what do you think of this. I assumed it wasn't written by a democrat, but it appears to be. A Lab+Lib+Con coalition would be fun to see.
If I were Nicol, I'd go with the SNP on the grounds that a) propping up Labour is a losers game. b) going into opposition would be churlish. c) local income tax is common ground to deliver on. d)Any referendum is going to be after the next Westminter election and that is a long long time in politics.
One, but not the only, condition I'd apply would be to exclude the Greens - 63 is close enough for all intents and purposes and you don't want to share the negotiating table with a self important haircut like Robin.
Love McGellie x
In response to BW, I will refrain from comment for now, other than to note that we may see a lot more of this kind of reaction over the next four years.
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