The latest opinion polls indicate that the seats in Holyrood will be distributed as follows:
Labour 41
SNP 44
LibDems 23
Tories 17
Greens 1
Others 3
If this scenario were to come to pass (which is a very big if), and given that the Parliament consists of 129 MSPs, the only two-party coalitions which could command a majority would be Labour-SNP (which is unthinkable) or SNP-LibDem. A Labour-LibDem alliance would only have 64 seats, one short of a majority (although, if a member of another party were appointed as presiding officer and if some other independent member was prepared to be sympathetic, a rather weak Labour-LibDem coalition might just be workable). Nevertheless, the odds would favour an SNP-LibDem alliance, were it not for the fact that they have spent much of the past two weeks throwing brickbats at each other.
At least, everyone now knows what 'xenophobic' means.
I continue to favour a nil result whereby the parties are unable to come to a satisfactory conclusion within the statutory 28 days, leading to another election in the autumn.
2 comments:
HW, let's face it, the Lib Dems have performed more policy somersaults to get into power than the Chinese State Circus acrobatic team. They will no doubt negotiate a form of words which will allow a Referendum White Paper to proceed and give them the 'get out of jail free' card of having to spend another four years in bed with Labour. Divorce is an expensive? Not if you have your next sleeping partner lined up.
I will readily admit that the lure of a ministerial mondeo is a powerful attraction.
But I'm not so sure that the LibDems will roll over quite so easily...
But we'll see in due course!
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