10 February 2007

We're all doomed...

Probably, you never even noticed. The Indie reports:
Time was when an annual trade deficit of the size announced yesterday would have prompted a fully blown run on the pound.
The unexpected magnitude of the December deficit meant that the figures didn't go entirely unnoticed by forex markets, yet the reaction was still muted considering that Britain's deficit in goods and services last year was the highest on record in nominal terms.
At 4.3 per cent GDP, the trade imbalance is also at its highest level since the mid 1970s, when numbers like these actually did trigger currency crises. Relatively high overseas earnings ensure that the current account deficit, which includes investment income, isn't quite so bad. Yet it is still high by historic standards.
In times past, the currency would have adjusted in a manner which made imports more expensive and exports more competitive, thereby bringing trade back into balance. Today, the continued robust strength of the pound is part of the problem. With the currency at nearly $2 to the pound, exports have been suffering badly.
At the risk of sounding like Cassandra, I have to say that it cannot go on like this. Living on tick is dangerous. Some day, sooner than you may think, the chickens will come home to roost.

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